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Can QAnon survive another 'Great Disappointment' on March 4? Historian explains why it might
March 04, 2021
Thursday could be a big day. On March 4, Donald Trump will be triumphantly returned to power to help save the world from a shadowy syndicate of Satan-worshipping pedophiles – or at least that is what a small fraction of American citizens believe.
But before you circle the date and dust off the MAGA hats, a note of caution: We have been here before. Adherents of the same conspiracy theory, QAnon, had previously marked Jan. 20, the day of Joe Biden's inauguration, as the big day. As Biden ascended the steps of the Capitol to take the presidential oath of office, tens of thousands of adherents of QAnon were eagerly awaiting the imminent arrest and execution of Democratic politicians in a "storm" that would upend the social and political order. It didn't happen.
<p>In the aftermath of this disappointment, some <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/tech/internet/some-qanon-followers-struggle-inauguration-day-n1255002" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">disillusioned QAnon followers left the fold</a>. But as evidenced by the <a href="https://news.yahoo.com/why-qanon-pinning-last-desperate-110800228.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">new date of March 4</a> – chosen because it was the day for presidential inaugurations until the <a href="https://www.loc.gov/item/today-in-history/march-04/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">20th Amendment was adopted in 1933</a> – some hardliners claimed they had simply gotten the date wrong. When – or if – that date too passes without incident, a new date may emerge.</p><p>It might be thought that enough failed predictions would eventually discredit a prophet. But <a href="https://isearch.asu.edu/profile/3496841" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">as a philosopher of religion</a>, I know history suggests a more complicated set of possibilities. Apocalyptic movements rarely simply dissolve when prophecies are seen to fail. Indeed, such crises have in the past presented believers with fertile opportunities to reinterpret prophecies. They have even strengthened movements, giving rise to new theories that attempt to explain the shortcomings of earlier ones.</p><p><strong>The Millerites</strong></p><p>This dynamic played out nearly 180 years ago with <a href="https://ohiohistorycentral.org/w/Millerites" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">the Millerites</a>, members of a 19th-century evangelical Christian movement who were part of an earlier "<a href="https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/apocalypse/explanation/amprophesy.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Great Awakening</a>" in U.S. religious history.</p><p>A Baptist preacher, William Miller drew on biblical texts and numerology to <a href="https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/apocalypse/explanation/amprophesy.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">predict the imminent second coming of Christ</a>. Although Miller did not initially claim to know the exact date, he and his followers offered various predictions. As each passed without incident, the Millerites redid the Biblical math to propose new dates, until finally the movement settled on Oct. 22, 1844.</p><p>As the expected second advent drew near, many Millerites gave away their possessions in anticipation of Christ's return.</p><p>When Oct. 22 came and went without incident, the Millerites were left to reconstruct a worldview that acknowledged what came to be called the "<a href="https://doi.org/10.12987/9780300222142-035" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Great Disappointment</a>."</p><p>Miller's followers concluded not that the Scriptures and numerology on which they had based their predictions were false, but simply that they had misunderstood their meaning. In one view, what the predictions foretold were not earthly events, but heavenly ones.</p><p>Millerism did not collapse; rather, elements of it were central to the establishment of <a href="https://doi.org/10.2307/3165422" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Seventh Day Adventism</a>, a rapidly growing Protestant denomination that <a href="https://www.adventist.org/beliefs/fundamental-beliefs/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">continues to look forward to Christ's return</a>.</p><p><strong>Crisis point</strong></p><p>Looking at how the Millerites dealt with their Great Disappointment gives an insight into how believers navigate <a href="https://academic.oup.com/monist/article-abstract/60/4/453/990730?redirectedFrom=fulltext" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">what the philosopher Alasdair MacIntyre calls "epistemological crises</a>." These are moments when the way someone understands the world is thrown into question by events that don't fit expectations.</p><p>Epistemological crises are not unique to religion. Anyone who has experienced heartbreak in a relationship, or felt the rug pulled out from under them when unexpectedly fired by an employer, knows that they are a fact of life.</p><p>Such a crisis undercuts a person's ability to tell the kind of story about themselves that gives order and meaning to life. Left unresolved, it threatens one's understanding of oneself and others.</p><p>Yet, such crises don't always prove insurmountable. MacIntyre writes, "When an epistemological crisis is resolved, it is by the <a href="https://math.ucr.edu/home/baez/corfield/2006/04/more-about-macintyre.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">construction of a new narrative</a>, which enables the agent to understand both how he or she could intelligibly have held his or her original beliefs and how he or she could have been so drastically misled by them."</p><p>Sometimes the new understanding repudiates the old. Often, however, the new narrative is not a radical departure from the old one, but an improvised and more sophisticated version of it – one that incorporates what had earlier seemed like outlying data points. The Millerites, for example, survived their Great Disappointment by reaffirming their belief that God is at work in ways that humans cannot always fully anticipate.</p><p>Writing in the mid-20th century, the philosopher Antony Flew suggested that over time, <a href="https://doi.org/10.1177/004057365601300217" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">religious beliefs "die the death of a thousand qualifications</a>." That is, they are modified beyond recognition, to the point of meaninglessness.</p><p>But scholars of religion have documented a pattern in which, rather than dying, fringe beliefs evolve, becoming more socially acceptable. As they are gradually disentangled from politics, <a href="https://doi.org/10.18792/jbasr.v21i0.37" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">they come to be thought of as more truly "religious</a>."</p><p><strong>Making sense of disappointment</strong></p><p>Whether or not movements like Millerism can move past great disappointments depends in part on the interpretive tools available within the group and the ingenuity of adherents in explaining away their own unfulfilled expectations.</p><p>It is anyone's guess whether QAnon will survive its current epistemological crisis. And if it does, there is no guarantee that it will emerge chastened.</p><p>Some <a href="https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/22252171/qanon-donald-trump-conspiracy-theories" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">commentators have predicted</a> that it will return even more dangerous than before, evolving into increasingly virulent strains. It may well be subsumed within a larger conspiracy theory that seeks to explain the current disappointment in the context of an even more elaborate narrative.</p><p>Perhaps one day <a href="https://theconversation.com/the-church-of-qanon-will-conspiracy-theories-form-the-basis-of-a-new-religious-movement-137859" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">QAnon will take its place within the domesticated pantheon of American civil religion</a> as another benign and depoliticized "faith." Then again, it may simply sputter out, dying the death of a thousand qualifications.</p><p>But if history is any guide, whether QAnon survives its Great Disappointment will depend on its adherents' ability to successfully explain to themselves how they could have been so drastically misled.</p><p><a href="https://theconversation.com/profiles/richard-amesbury-1208278" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Richard Amesbury</a>, Professor of Religious Studies and of Philosophy and Director of the School of Historical, Philosophical and Religious Studies, <em><a href="https://theconversation.com/institutions/arizona-state-university-730" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Arizona State University</a></em></p><p>This article is republished from <a href="https://theconversation.com/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">The Conversation</a> under a Creative Commons license.</p>
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With Joe Biden in the White House, the disloyal opposition is not unreasonably seeking ways to chip away at his legitimacy. One way is make-believing he didn't win.1 Another is make-believing the moral foundation by which the Democrats held the former Republican president accountable suddenly doesn't matter now that the president is a Democrat. This is the reason everyone's talking about Andrew Cuomo.
As you know, he's the Democratic governor of the state of New York. What you might not know is that a third woman has emerged to accuse him of sexual misconduct of some variety. (This time, he allegedly tried to kiss her without her consent.) Last year, the press corps cast Cuomo as Donald Trump's antipode, a state leader stepping up to combat the covid pandemic when the president failed to do any such thing. It has since been revealed that the governor did a terrible job, specifically that his administration allowed an estimated 9,000 covid patients to enter nursing homes around the state.
<p>But it's sex that gets attention. Throughout his one and only term, Trump was dogged by one allegation after another of sexual misconduct, even rape. He never paid a price, because the Republicans shielded him from responsibility. This almost certainly cost the former president electoral support in the all-important suburbs, where affluent and educated white women found a safer embrace among the Democrats. Now that the Democrats control Washington, the Republicans have incentive to portray Biden and the Democrats as the party of hypocrites who refuse to hold their own accountable.</p><p>This is why you have seen in the last week silly attempts at moral equivalence between the parties where there is none. <em>Times</em> columnist Ross Douthat, for reasons related, I can only suppose, to his draconian pessimism of human nature, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/27/opinion/sunday/trump-cuomo-media-covid.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">portrayed Cuomo</a> as a fading "anti-Trump idol," as if his efforts were just another failed and disappointing attempt to redeem humanity's sin. Opinion programs on Fox were busy comparing Democratic outrage over Trump's alleged crimes to Democratic "silence" over Andrew Cuomo's. Gretchen Carlson, the former Fox co-host who accused its former top executive of sexual misconduct, <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2021/03/02/andrew-cuomo-sexual-harassment-intimidation-resign-gretchen-carlson-column/6875610002/?utm_source=usatoday-Todays%20Opinions&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=baseline&utm_term=hero" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">co-wrote an op-ed</a> for <em>USA Today</em>: "When it comes to harassment, Democrats cannot talk the talk <em>if they are not willing to walk the walk</em>."</p><p>The "if" clause I put in italics seems to me quite telling. For one thing, it suggests a true objective, which is not getting the Democrats to honor their stated moral convictions with respect to gender. The real goal is probably just getting the Democrats to shut the hell up about the GOP's indefensible behavior. For another, it swaps a hypothetical—something that does not yet exist—for something that <em>does</em>. The Democrats have walked the walk. They can talk the talk. Two words: Al Franken.</p><p>The former Democratic senator from Minnesota resigned in late 2017 amid the first wave of the #MeToo movement during which he was accused of sexual misconduct. (At first, it seemed like Franken had been targeted by right-wing saboteurs, but two years after quitting, nearly 10 women had come forward to accuse him of myriad crimes.) At the time, some said <em>Franken should not resign unless Trump does</em>. If the Democrats force him out, critics said, they'd be giving up without a fight. I thought that was wrong, politically and morally. I hope, in light of Andrew Cuomo's scandal, we all see that.</p><p>Why was it wrong? First, because it made morality relative and conditional. It also made the Democrats indistinguishable from the Republicans. By purging Franken, the Democrats declared that morality isn't transactional for them. Second, because transactional morality, if that had been the direction the Democrats had chosen, would have obscured a clear political opportunity. By sacrificing Franken, the Democrats gave the eventual nominee an advantage over to the pussy-grabbing GOP incumbent.</p><p>But the final reason transactional morality was wrong hasn't come to light until now. The Republicans want everyone to think the Democrats will stand by Andrew Cuomo the way the Republicans stood by (and remain committed to standing by) Donald Trump. They want the public to see the Democrats as talking the talk, not walking the walk. But everything about this gambit requires everyone to forget about Al Franken. The Democrats have a record of holding their own to account, and they will again.</p><p>Cuomo might dig in. But that's separate from what the rest of the party should do, which is call for his head. That's what's happening. After today's <em>Times</em> <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/01/nyregion/cuomo-harassment-anna-ruch.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">report</a> relaying allegations by a third accuser, US Rep. Kathleen Rice wrote on Twitter: "The time has come. The governor must resign." Rice represents Long Island. She was one of the first to call for Franken's resignation, days before Kirsten Gillibrand did. First slowly and now quickly, the dominoes are falling around Andrew Cuomo. The end is in sight. Will that prevent the Republicans from accusing the Democrats of hypocrisy? Come on.</p>
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On Wednesday, former Vice President Mike Pence broke his post-election silence to attack H.R. 1, the Democratic-backed election reform and anti-corruption bill, to stir up the same baseless election conspiracies that he and his former boss peddled leading up to the 2020 election and all the way up to the Jan. 6 Capitol insurrection that nearly cost him his life.
In an op-ed in the Daily Signal, a blog for the conservative Heritage Foundation, Pence accused Democrats of sweeping "valid concerns and reforms" about election security aside to "push forward a brazen attempt to nationalize elections in blatant disregard of the U.S. Constitution."
<p>Pence did not make any specific mention of the 2020 election, in which his former Republican colleagues baselessly pushed forward a movement to overturn the results and undermine faith in U.S. elections, in his column. He, instead, argued that the specifics of H.R. 1, otherwise known as the <a href="https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/people-act-americas-next-great-civil-rights-bill" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">For the People Act</a>, might conceivably undermine the security of future elections.</p><p>"Congressional districts would be redrawn by unelected, unaccountable bureaucrats," Pence alleged. "Illegal immigrants and law-abiding American citizens would receive equal representation in Congress. Felons would be able to vote the moment they set foot out of prison."</p><p>He continued, "H.R. 1 is also loaded with ill-advised changes to federal campaign laws that would impose onerous legal and administrative burdens on candidates, civic groups, unions, nonprofit organizations, and ordinary citizens who want to exercise their First Amendment rights to engage in political speech, including on public policy issues that are vital to the life of our nation."</p><p>Pence did stress the need for election reform, but only at the federal level.</p><p>"Our Founders limited Congress' role in conducting our elections for good reason," he said, "They wanted elections to be administered closest to the people, free from undue influence of the national government."</p><p>The op-ed comes as Bloomberg News <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-03/trump-weighs-2024-white-house-run-without-mike-pence-allies-say" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">reported</a> on Wednesday that Donald Trump is weighing a 2024 bid without Pence on the ticket.</p><p>According to people close with the former president, Trump's advisers are discussing a woman or Black running mate. One adviser suggested Trump might tap South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem. According to Bloomberg, Donald Trump, Jr. and his girlfriend, Kimberly Guilfoyle, are planning a fundraiser for Noem on Friday in Palm Beach. On Tuesday, Trump also publicly <a href="https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/541248-trump-endorses-tim-scott-for-reelection" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">endorsed</a> the re-election of Sen. Tim Scott, R-N.C, the only black Republican in the Senate. .</p><p>Leading up to election certification on Jan. 6, Trump <a href="https://www.salon.com/2021/01/06/no-pence-wont-start-a-coup-despite-trumps-bullying-vp-has-no-power-to-reject-joe-bidens-win/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">publicly pressured</a> Pence to reject the Electoral College's votes. But Pence did not make an effort to grant his request and remained out of the public eye until Joe Biden's inauguration, which Pence attended.</p><p>During his speech at CPAC last weekend, Trump <a href="https://www.salon.com/2021/02/22/trump-reportedly-plans-to-position-himself-as-presumptive-2024-nominee-in-cpac-speech/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">hinted</a> at making another bid for the White House in 2024.</p><p>"Who knows," he'd said, "I may even decide to beat them a third time." By contrast, Pence rejected an invitation to the event, where just 1% of convention-goers named him when asked who they would vote for if the Republican primary for president were held today.</p>
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