Quantcast
Connect with us

Wall Street voting for Clinton and Republican Congress

Published

on

After an unpredictable and bitter campaign season, Wall Street is eyeing its preferred 2016 election outcome: a Hillary Clinton presidency offset by a Republican-controlled Congress.

Evidence of the market’s clear inclination for a Clinton victory has been seen at key junctures in the race, such as when stock futures surged in the moments after the first presidential debate, which was widely seen as a win for the former secretary of state.

“The S&P 500 futures exploded higher,” recalled Gregori Volokhine, president of Meeschaert Capital Markets. “It was obvious which candidate the market prefers.”

That preference also was on display in response to news about Clinton’s email investigation, including Sunday, when stock futures spiked higher after the FBI cleared the Democratic candidate in the latest review of emails linked to her private server.

Analysts view Clinton as a known quantity who is likely to maintain many of the policies of President Barack Obama. In contrast, Republican Donald Trump is viewed as a wildcard with no public service record and a penchant for lambasting everything from free trade deals to the Federal Reserve to people who contradict him.

A surprise win by Trump, who has consistently trailed in the polls, could spur a sharp negative reaction Wednesday, although markets could steady after that.

ADVERTISEMENT

“The big move would be caused just by the unknown of what he might do and the perception that he’s volatile,” said Michael Scanlon, managing director of Manulife Asset Management.

“Then the reason I temper that and say it would be short-lived is that we still have a government with checks and balances. It’s not like he’s being elected king or anything like that.”

– Market likes gridlock –

While the market has shown it favors Clinton in the White House, that does not extend to Democrats in Congress.

ADVERTISEMENT

When Clinton appeared to pull away significantly from Trump in polls last month, some analysts expressed worry that a Democratic congressional sweep could lead to efforts to tax business more heavily, or take other steps viewed as anti-growth.

The market is accustomed to having a Democratic president offset by a Republican Congress and views a change to that equilibrium as a potential threat.

On Monday, “the market rallied on the assumption that the GOP should manage to retain control of one house, if not both houses, of Congress, thereby ensuring an environment of continued political gridlock,” said Briefing.com analyst Patrick O’Hare.

“It’s a view we suspect that doesn’t register quite as neatly on Main Street, where millions and millions of votes will be cast today on the basis of wanting to see some meaningful changes.”

ADVERTISEMENT

As far as election evening trading, several leading banks, including JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup and Credit Suisse, plan to provide US staff overnight in expectation that volume will be elevated.

“JPMorgan  will have some traders staffed on the New York trading desks during the night hours, ready to support our Asia trading teams manage any potential spikes in volume,” a spokesman said. “That is similar to what we did for the Brexit vote.”

Although US stock markets will be closed when the election results begin to come in, there are many other available avenues to trade, including the foreign exchange market and the S&P 500 futures market.

Trading volume likely will rise in spurts as key results are announced, such as critical swing states in the presidential contest, including Florida, North Carolina and Ohio.

ADVERTISEMENT

“Looking at the last election, it seems fair to say that the result comes around midnight,” said Erik Nelson, a foreign exchange analyst at Wells Fargo. “I would say around midnight we would get the most volatility as we get a little more sense of what is going on.”

JJ Kinahan, chief market strategist of TD Ameritrade, will be monitoring multiple television screens and tracking political blogs.

“I’ll be doing what every other loser trader does, sitting in front of my screen and trying to trade futures,” he said. “There is going to be opportunity.”

Report typos and corrections to [email protected].
READ COMMENTS - JOIN THE DISCUSSION
Continue Reading

CNN

If Trump really believed he was falsely accused ‘that is not a corrupt motive’ for removing the special counsel: Bill Barr

Published

on

Attorney General William Barr told Senator Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) that if President Donald Trump really and truly thought he was being falsely accused of collaborating with Russia to steal the 2016 presidential election, that it was "not a corrupt motive" for firing Robert Mueller, a stunning statement from the nation's highest law enforcement officer.

"As a matter of law, I think the department's position would be that the president can direct the termination or the replacement of a special counsel," said Barr. "And as a matter of law, the obstruction statute does not reach that conduct."

Continue Reading

2020 Election

Trump ‘shirking his duty to protect the country’ by ignoring Russia election threat: Ex-CIA agent

Published

on

Ex-CIA agent Evan McMullin told CNN on Wednesday that President Donald Trump was "shirking his duty to protect the country" by ignoring the fact that Russia plans to attack the 2020 election.

"He's shirking his responsibility to protect the country," McMullin said. "We are in a new era of information warfare."

"Countries can be defeated without a shot being fired," he went on. "We just learned from the Mueller report that the president was aware that we were undergoing, as a country, an information warfare attack during 2016. He sought to benefit from it."

"A lot of times we say 'look, the president's ego is wounded' when we talk about how the Russians attacked us, and may have helped him get elected," McMullin continued. "But I actually think that we are a little naive to buy into that narrative. I think that is a fig leaf for the president. How can we ignore that this president barely won the electoral college?"

Continue Reading
 

Elections 2016

White House made it clear they were ‘trying to hide’ evidence from Mueller: Omarosa

Published

on

Omarosa Manigault, former political aide to President Donald Trump, told MSNBC Wednesday that the while the White House never "directly" ordered her to destroy documents related to the Mueller report, they made it quite clear they were "trying to hide" evidence.

"He wants to run out the clock," Manigault said. "He thinks he can run down the clock and that people will stop being concerned about it. We should really not just focus about what he is telling people to do or say, but how he's asked people to destroy documents, to destroy e-mails, in my case two boxes of campaign-related materials that the White House still has in their possession, that they claim they don't have or don't know what happened to it."

Continue Reading
 
 

Copyright © 2019 Raw Story Media, Inc. PO Box 21050, Washington, D.C. 20009 | Masthead | Privacy Policy | For corrections or concerns, please email [email protected]

I need your help.

Investigating Trump's henchmen is a full time job, and I'm trying to bring in new team members to do more exclusive reports. We have more stories coming you'll love. Join me and help restore the power of hard-hitting progressive journalism.

TAKE A LOOK
close-link

Investigating Trump is a full-time job, and I want to add new team members to do more exclusive reports. We have stories coming you'll love. Join me and go ad-free, while restoring the power of hard-hitting progressive journalism.—David Cay Johnston

TAKE A LOOK
close-link