President Trump on Wednesday announced that the military would no longer allow transgender people to serve, citing both "the tremendous medical costs and disruption" that would be caused by their integration into U.S. forces. ….victory and cannot be burdened with the tremendous medical costs and disruption that transgender in the military would entail. Thank you -…
A discussion on MSNBC's "Morning Joe" on comments made by Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA), who said he didn't see Donald Trump successfully winning the 2024 presidential election, led to an agreement by host Joe Scarborough and marketing expert Donny Deutsch that the GOP could reclaim the White House that year -- as long as Trump wasn't the Republican Party candidate.
Speaking with Axios, the Louisana Republican questioned whether Trump could even be the nominee, saying, "President Trump is the first president in the Republican side at least to lose the House, the Senate and the presidency in four years. Elections are about winning."
Using that as a springboard, host Scarborough asked Deutsch whether Cassidy was off base with his comments.
"Does Donald Trump still own the Republican Party? Yes," Scarborough began. "But that Republican Party is a lot smaller and a lot less influential in suburbs across America and more educated Americans if you look at the polling number. Again, I know everybody is scared of Donald Trump, it just does not seem like the trend lines are going well for him in terms of putting together a coalition that can win."
"Here is the fact," Deutsch exclaimed. "If the Republicans ran anybody but Donald Trump, they would win in a landslide. Anybody just right of center."
"Anybody?" the MSNBC host prompted." Donny, nobody has said this enough. You go back and look at 2020, Democrats were shocked by how badly they underperformed in the House and shocked how badly they underperformed in the Senate. Donald Trump had to work overtime to make Mitch McConnell the minority leader in Georgia -- they had to work overtime to lose that. You look at state legislatures across America that were less connected to Trump and they did very well. You look at governorships less connected to Trump and they did very well. Republicans had a pretty, darn good election cycle in 2020 despite the fact they should have been wiped off the face of the political earth because of the insanity and the neo-fascism Donald Trump was pushing."
"If anybody except for Trump ran, they would have won by 20 points," Scarborough added.
"I would like to to see polls, a poll of Trump against Biden, which I think Trump would eke out a victory, " Deutsch claimed. "But then I want to see pools with Nikki Haley or Ron DeSantis or fill in the blank and they'll win by double digits. You know, I live in this bubble and this very kind of blue state and I can't tell you the unrest with the feeling the Democrats are in control and running things and Biden is not putting his hands on the wheel and nobody on deck. That is the concern the Democrats have. If Republicans are smart they would move away from Trump. Can they and will they? You and I don't know that. But, clearly, if they did, it would be a landslide."
MSNBC 10 18 2021 07 00 26 youtu.be
In the wake of an ABC News interview with Christopher Steele, Michael Cohen released a special episode of his podcast, "Mea Culpa," where he addressed some of the allegations against him and some claims made against Trump. He was joined on the podcast with Daily Beast editor Molly Jong Fast.
Cohen recalled that last week, Trump told major political donors, unprompted, that he doesn't like to be urinated on. The former lawyer wondered why Trump is so obsessed with this story, that even years later he can't stop talking about it.
"She knows, I don't like to be peed on," Trump told the crowd, pointing to his wife.
"If that in itself doesn't prove that something is psychologically wrong with him, I don't know what does," Cohen said on the podcast. In previous comments, Cohen said that he looked extensively for the tape and he doesn't believe it actually exists. Steele told ABC News host George Stephanopoulos that he believes it does. In fact, Steele said that he stood by his dossier, despite the fact that he doesn't think his entire work is accurate.
"Do you think it hurts your credibility at all that you won't accept the findings of the FBI in this particular case?" Stephanopoulos asked.
"I'm prepared to accept that not everything in the dossier is 100 percent accurate," Steele said. "I have yet to be convinced that that is one of them."
Cohen released a statement responding to Steele, claiming that some claims about him are absurd, as did Barry Meier, author of Spooked: The Trump Dossier, Black Cube, and the Rise of Private Spies.
"Christopher Steele is free to believe whatever he wants, but if Christopher Steele wants other people to believe that he's believable, he needs to show us what evidence he has to support his beliefs," said Meier.
Cohen said that he can't understand why his former boss would walk back into a scandal that bothers him so much. Daily Beast editor Molly Jong Fast, who was also on Cohen's podcast, passed off Trump's obsession as a kind of compulsion, which Cohen questioned.
"What compulsion?" asked Cohen. "What could possibly be the underlying motive? And you're right, I know him better than anybody — I, myself, cannot understand what the f*ck this idiot was thinking when he decided in the middle of a donor meeting to turn around and stay to people, 'By the way, I want you all to know, I'm not into golden showers. I'm not into being peed on.' What point are you trying to make here?"
Jong Fast changed the subject, recalling that the next comments out of Trump's mouth were what she found interesting, that he "saved the Republican Party." She noted that she doesn't think the donors believe he saved the GOP, "I think they're hostages to him. So, the idea that he thinks that these people are going to applaud him, while he's taken them hostage?"
Jong Fast asked who cares what Steele says, and that Cohen and those around him know the truth and that what others think doesn't matter. Cohen, who continues to fight to correct the record on many of the accusations against him and make amends, explained that it matters to him. He's willing to confess to any wrongdoing, but won't admit to anything that he says isn't real.
Democrats won't be rallying voters with claims they can flip control of the Texas Legislature in the general election a year from now.
The redistricting maps nearing approval in the current special legislative session make that a near impossibility.
Missing their last chance to win a majority in the Texas House in 2020 — remember that "Turn Texas Blue" battle cry? — was politically expensive for the state's Democrats. It meant the new political maps drawn to fit the new 2020 census would be tailored by Republicans, for Republicans, and that Democrats' wishes would end up in the dustbin or, at best, in the courts.
That's what's happening, and those are the maps that will be used in the 2022 elections. They're not quite law yet but will be soon, and they are markedly more Republican than this conservative state's recent voting history.
Because those maps almost guarantee Republican majorities in the state's congressional delegation, in the Texas House and Senate, and in the State Board of Education, the 2022 elections will really be about the executive branch. The odds there aren't great for the Democrats, either.
In the 2020 presidential election, Donald Trump got 52.1% in Texas and Joe Biden got 46.5%. With that baseline, Republicans should have 78 seats in the House, 16 in the Senate, 20 in the congressional delegation and eight on the SBOE. In the new maps, voters in 85 of the House districts favored Trump, along with 19 Senate districts, 25 congressional districts and nine SBOE districts.
The proposed maps favor Republicans more than the state's voters do. But even if they were precisely representative of how Texans voted in the last statewide elections, the GOP would have an edge: They won all of those contests.
Whatever else you might say about that situation — whether it's "to the majority go the spoils" or "gerrymandering is undemocratic" — those are the maps that will be used in the 2022 elections. And if they aren't given wholesale makeovers, they strongly favor Republican candidates and are designed to keep Republican majorities in all four places.
Democratic candidates haven't won a statewide election in Texas since 1994. Midterm elections — those that fall between presidential elections — are typically hard on the party of whoever is in the White House. That's a Democrat right now, and Republicans running for office in Texas (and everywhere else in the country) will be campaigning against whichever Biden administration policy happens to be most unpopular with voters at the time.
To top it off, the Democrats do not yet have a standard-bearer, though it would be a surprise at this point if former U.S. Rep. Beto O'Rourke of El Paso did not enter the governor's race before the start of the holiday season. While there has been a lot of conversation about who else might run for this or that, that late-forming Democratic ticket shortens the time available to raise the money and build the public reputation and recognition needed to win a statewide election. It takes time to become a household name, even if only the political households in the state are in the audience.
Having missed their shot at real influence on the maps, Texas Democrats start the next decade trying to find ways to win on Republican turf. At the end of the last decade, their biggest advances came in legislative races, particularly in the Texas House.
The new maps will make that difficult, particularly in the next couple of election cycles. The current maps were drawn in 2010 by Republicans trying to bolster their majorities, then tinkered with by federal judges who found intentional racial discrimination by lawmakers and other problems in the designs of some districts. Over the next 10 years, the state's growth and changing politics eroded that advantage. That might happen again between now and 2030, but that won't help the Democrats in 2022.
Their best chances are at the top of the ballot, where Republican incumbents are known to voters and have money, organization and an undefeated winning record that stretches back more than a quarter of a century. Those chances aren't all that great; they're just better than the chances Democrats have for legislative majorities.
Judging by their governing record this year, the Republicans — starting with Gov. Greg Abbott — are most worried about competition from members of their own party in next year's primaries. They're defending their right flanks from conservatives, not their left flanks from liberals.
It's not hard to see why.
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