The Republican Party's elation over the successful passage of their wildly unpopular tax bill is likely to be short-lived say GOP strategists and researchers, according to a Wednesday dispatch from Politico.
Obstacles loom for the party, including a possible government shutdown and Democrats' determination to keep government subsidies flowing to enrollees in the Affordable Healthcare Act (ACA). Among Republicans in the House of Representatives, the fear is that Democrats will insist on the subsidies in order to keep the federal government from shutting down, an act that could have disastrous political consequences for the president and the GOP.
“It’s kinda like leaving a hospital finding out you’re cancer free and getting run over by a Mack truck,” said Republican Study Committee Chairman Mark Walker of North Carolina. Walker said he's pleased about the passage of the tax bill but horrified that Republicans would even entertain the notion of enacting the subsidy payments.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) originally floated the idea of offering the subsidies as part of a deal to avert a shutdown on the Friday before the Christmas holiday. House Republicans have rejected the idea outright.
"That’s to say nothing of January," wrote Politico's Rachael Bade and Seung Min Kim, "when Congress is expected to raise strict spending caps without equivalent cuts and potentially offer deportation relief to Dreamers. Both could repel the conservative base even more."
So while Republicans may get a temporary high from yanking millions of Americans' healthcare away and adding more than a trillion dollars to the deficit, their "fantasy world" will soon come up against the hard realities of governing in a second year with a weak, ineffective president who could lash out at his purported allies at any time.
"Republicans throughout Washington have begun calling the January legislative agenda the 'shit sandwich,'” Politico said.
Paul Ryan reportedly warned members of the House Republican caucus on Wednesday that the tax win may be sweet, but they may have to cave to Democrats on Obamacare subsidies, which rankled the ever-obstreperous, far right-wing House Freedom Caucus.
“It’s going to take a lot of the win away and a lot of the momentum away if we go back on our principles, and to me that’s why the [Obamacare] payments are toxic,” said Freedom Caucus member Rep. Warren Davidson (R-OH).
The Freedom Caucus' sworn enemy McConnell is reportedly anxious to do whatever is necessary to avoid a shutdown, which is making the ultra-conservative House caucus boiling mad behind the scenes.
Even if lawmakers manage to avert a shutdown, wrote Bade and Kim, January is going to be difficult for Republicans because they will need Democratic votes to pass bills on spending and immigration, concessions that Democrats may be unwilling to offer, still smarting from the draconian tax bill.
"That means it’s only a matter of time before Republicans cut loose their right flank," Politico said. "But perhaps when that happens, and the intra-party bickering reaches a new crescendo, they’ll look back to the day tax reform passed with fond memories."
