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Winners and losers from the new NAFTA deal



Talks between Canada and the United States intensified on Thursday as the two countries pushed for a deal on a revamped North American Free Trade Agreement by a Friday deadline, with both sides upbeat about the progress made.

Talks entered a crucial phase this week after the United States and Mexico reached a bilateral deal on Monday, paving the way for Canada to rejoin talks to salvage the 24-year-old accord that underpins $1.2 trillion in annual North American trade.


Mexico has been an increasingly important export market for the United States for most of the past decade. Securing continued access to the U.S. marketplace was viewed as an objective in itself by major Mexican industrial groups.

Here are some key differences between the Mexico-U.S. deal and the original NAFTA, and who the winners and losers may be:

The automotive sector was at the core of U.S. President Donald Trump’s desire to rework NAFTA, and the deal struck seeks to impose curbs on the lower-cost Mexican car industry.

The new deal requires 75 percent of the value of a vehicle to be produced in the North American region, up from the original NAFTA threshold of 62.5 percent.


Aside from making it harder for carmakers to assemble autos outside of North America and still get duty-free access to the most lucrative market – the United States – the higher threshold also aims to keep more parts from Asia out of the region.

It also stipulates 40 percent to 45 percent of a vehicle’s value be made in areas paying at least $16 an hour, such as the United States or Canada, which could potentially stem the southward drift of industrial capacity to Mexico.

A side agreement not formally part of the accord would allow the United States to pursue national security tariffs on annual Mexican car and SUV imports of over 2.4 million vehicles.


The number significantly exceeds last year’s total imports, and allows Mexico’s industry room to grow, but serves as a potential quota. The side deal also allows U.S. national security levies on Mexican auto parts imports above $90 billion per year.

Despite this, if the Trump administration opts to slap so-called 232 national security tariffs on global automotive imports, Mexico may end up better protected than other nations.

The pact also requires greater use of North American steel, aluminum, glass and plastics than the original.


Through the side agreements, the new arrangement pushes North America closer to “managed trade”, a more interventionist model that could benefit large companies able to tailor output toward quotas but could hurt consumers with higher prices.

Mexico and the United States agreed to eliminate a settlement system for anti-dumping disputes, NAFTA’s Chapter 19.

The move, sought by Trump, puts Canada in a difficult position because Prime Minister Justin Trudeau had insisted on maintaining Chapter 19 to fight U.S. duties on softwood lumber, paper and other products that it views as unfair.


That could put pressure on Ottawa to make concessions on Canada’s protected C$21 billion ($16.3 billion) dairy market.

The original NAFTA settlement system for disputes between investors and states was scaled back, now only for expropriation, favoritism for local firms and state-dominated sectors such as oil, power and infrastructure.

The deal contains enforceable labor provisions that require Mexico to adhere to International Labor Organization standards to drive Mexican wages higher, lessening Mexico’s attractiveness as a place for labor-intensive investment.

Stronger labor rules and upwards wage pressure may translate into more robust Mexican consumer demand in due course.


The deal keeps the United States open tariff-free to Mexican farmers, the biggest exporters of agricultural produce to the United States.


The two agreed for Mexico to double its minimum duty-free shipment threshold, the so-called de minimis value, to $100.

That is likely to benefit both express delivery firms and online retailers such as Amazon.com Inc.


Unlike the original trade accord, the new agreement has a lifespan of 16 years, and foresees a review every six years that can extend the pact for 16 years more.

Trade curbs will increase pressure on Mexico and Canada to return to the negotiating table every six years. That could encourage growth in powerful lobbying interests.

Compiled by Anthony Esposito and David Lawder; Editing by Dave Graham and Lisa Shumaker

Report typos and corrections to: [email protected].
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‘You never cover this’: Giuliani has fresh meltdown on Fox News over Biden’s ‘drug addict’ son



President Donald Trump's attorney, Rudy Giuliani, went on a conspiratorial rant on Sunday involving Joe Biden's son and billionaire George Soros.

During an appearance on FOX News Sunday, Biden tried to smear Hunter Biden as a corrupt "drug addict" was doing illegal business in the Ukraine.

According to the president's attorney, Biden tried to cover up his son's business dealings in a conspiracy that involves Soros.

Guest host John Roberts asked Giuliani if it was "appropriate" for him to try have to the Bidens investigated.

"This began with someone saying, this information can clear your client," Giuliani opined. "The corruption in Ukraine about the corruption in Ukraine between the Ukraine and the Democratic Party, the ambassador and the FBI agent who investigated."

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2020 Election

Will Trump peacefully vacate the Oval Office if he loses the presidential election in 2020? A lesson from 1800



As primary season heats up in the United States, the Democrats are anxiously debating the best path to unseat Donald Trump in 2020. But the question of how to beat Trump is perhaps less urgent than the issue of whether he will accept defeat.

Trump has already questioned his loss of the 2016 popular vote with baseless accusations of voter fraud. He has also repeatedly toyed with the idea of extending his presidency beyond the eight-year limit enshrined in the U.S. Constitution, even trumpeting Jerry Falwell Jr.’s assertion that his first term be extended by two years to compensate for the Russia investigation. Perhaps most ominously, Trump’s former lawyer Michael Cohen warned while testifying before the House Oversight Committee in February 2019:

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Something is killing galaxies — and science is on the case



In the most extreme regions of the universe, galaxies are being killed. Their star formation is being shut down and astronomers want to know why.

The first ever Canadian-led large project on one of the world’s leading telescopes is hoping to do just that. The new program, called the Virgo Environment Traced in Carbon Monoxide survey (VERTICO), is investigating, in brilliant detail, how galaxies are killed by their environment.

As VERTICO’s principal investigator, I lead a team of 30 experts that are using the Atacama Large Millimeter Array (ALMA) to map the molecular hydrogen gas, the fuel from which new stars are made, at high resolution across 51 galaxies in our nearest galaxy cluster, called the Virgo Cluster.

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