President Donald Trump loves crowing about the strong economy he’s overseeing — but will that boomerang back on him in just two years?
Bloomberg reports that a model used by investment firm JPMorgan to predict economic conditions is now saying there is a 60 percent chance of a recession occurring over the next two years.
“JPMorgan’s model includes indicators ranging from consumer and business sentiment to prime-age male labor participation, compensation growth, and durables and structures as a share of gross domestic product,” Bloomberg writes.
JPMorgan says that while there’s just a 28 percent chance of a recession hitting in 2019, there is an 80 percent chance that a recession will hit the economy by at least 2021.
The timing of such a recession could not be worse for President Trump, who already suffers from record-low approval ratings despite presiding over a strong economy with low unemployment. A recession hitting on the same year as his reelection bid would make his victory even more difficult — especially since his campaign slogan for 2020 will be, “Keep America Great.”