The Democratic Party establishment has aggressively sought to downplay any chance of impeaching President Donald Trump, but political dynamics outside of their control may force their hand before the 2020 presidential election -- and it may be good politics to do so.
Conservative writer Ramesh Ponnuru of the National Review listed five reasons that impeachment may move forward anyway in a Bloomberg Opinion column.
He first cited the "capacious" standard for what constitutes an impeachable offense. The Constitution allows impeachment for "high Crimes and Misdemeanors," which do not necessarily require a violation of federal law.
His second point is that the Democratic Party establishment's views on impeachment are out-of-step with the views of their base.
"In the exit polls, 39 percent of Americans who voted for House candidates already favor impeachment, before Democrats have made a sustained case," he noted. "About three-quarters of people who voted for Democratic candidates want Trump impeached."
His next point noted that dynamic could be exacerbated in the next two years.
"Third, a lot of Democratic voters could well start to get frustrated next year as it becomes clear how little effect winning the House has had," he noted. "For a lot of liberals, the midterms were about 'holding Trump accountable.' They might eventually ask their elected representatives why they are not exercising their full constitutional power to do that."
His fourth reason was the crowded campaign for the 2020 Democratic Party nomination for president.
"The candidates will want to gain attention for the purity and fervor of their hostility to Trump. The campaign trail will not be an environment conducive to caution, especially about something that most Democratic voters want," he explained.
The fifth reason -- surprising for a conservative to make -- is that impeaching Trump may not be as toxic as the Democratic Party establishment assumes.
The argument -- made against impeaching both George W. Bush and Trump -- is that Republicans lost seats in Congress after the failed impeachment of Bill Clinton.
"But the lesson may have been overlearned. Republicans proceeded with impeachment anyway, and in the 2000 election their party kept the House and gained the presidency," Ponnuru noted. "Also, the idea of removing Clinton from office was unpopular in important part because the country was largely satisfied by how it was being governed and did not want to see their good fortune disrupted. Our own time is not like that at all. Impeachment now would not be an irruption of chaos in a previously placid national scene."
Read the full column.
