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When Donald Trump endorsed right-wing extremist Kelly Tshibaka Friday as his choice for Alaska senator in 2022, most observers focused on how he was exacting vengeance on Sen. Lisa Murkowski, Tshibaka's incumbent opponent.
But they might have missed a bigger story: Trump's support could open a door for the Democrats to flip Alaska's Senate seat.
Here's the reason: Alaska will be introducing a new ranked-choice voting system in 2022, one that's unlike any other in the nation. It provides first for a nonpartisan open primary in August from which the top four vote-getters move onto to the November general election, regardless of party affiliation.
If one of the candidates then receives more than 50 percent (+1) of the vote in that four-way race, the election is over. But here's the innovative part: If no candidate wins the simple majority, it sets off an electronic battle for others' second-place votes.
This is how it works: If there's no 50 percent (+1) winner, the candidate with the fewest first-choice votes would be eliminated. People who voted for that candidate as their first choice would have their votes redistributed to the person they selected as their second choice.
If that doesn't produce a majority winner, the process is repeated with the 3rd-place finisher having their second-place votes redistributed. At that point, whichever of the two remaining candidates has the most votes would be declared the winner, with no runoff election.
In the past traditional system, Tshibaka would have been the odds-on favorite to win a Republican primary over Murkowski and then to breeze to victory. The state Republican Party censured Murkowski in March for, among other things, voting for Trump's second impeachment and for voting to certify President Joe Biden's election. She'd have had no chance in a GOP primary.
But the advent of the "top four" open primary spared Murkowski of having to run one-on-one against Tshibaka among Alaska Republicans. And that changed everything.
Now, Tshibaka will likely need to face off against Murkowski, a top Democrat, and an Independent in a November 2022 general election. If she cannot win a simple majority in such a 4-way race, she'll need to hope that some supporters of her rivals made her their second-place choice.
That's a heavy lift. Here's an early snapshot of the race, based on a Change Research survey of likely Alaskan voters taken less than a month ago:
- Tshibaka: 39%
- Al Gross: 25%
- Murkowski 19%
- John Howe 4%
Gross (who hasn't announced a 2022 candidacy yet) received 41.2% of the 2020 Senate vote as the Democratic challenger, losing to Sen. Daniel Sullivan. Howe, the Alaskan Independence Party nominee, received 4.7% in that race.
Using these poll numbers as a hypothetical, Tshibaka is outpolled 48-to-39 percent by her collective rivals. And her number only goes up if supporters of the 3rd and 4th place finishers listed her as their second choice.
A big question facing Tshibaka is how many Gross, Murkowski and Howe voters would be willing to cast a second-choice vote for a homophobic extremist. And Tshibaka certainly fits that description, as reported April 27 at RawStory.com:
Tshibaka "has written in favor of the discredited "conversion therapy" and blamed homosexuality on childhood sexual abuse…A CNN KFile investigation turned up her past writings urging gay individuals to use Christianity to "work through the process of coming out of homosexuality" and denouncing the "Twilight" book and movie series as "evil.
"Some say this book is harmless, that it promotes Christian values, and that it does not promote anything wicked at all. But Satan does not usually look repulsive, horrific, and evil on the outside," she wrote in an October 2009 blog post. "Make no mistake: 'Twilight' is a perfect example of how the enemy twists, perverts, and ridicules the things of God. This is his m.o. This is how he works."
More recently, there was this from CNN in April:
"We don't know the outcome of the 2020 election," Tshibaka responded when asked whether she agreed with Trump that he won the 2020 election. "I still have questions, and I think millions of other Americans do too."
None of that weirdness is likely to persuade Democrats, independents and RINOs to enter "Tshibaka" on the second-place line. And if they don't, she'd need to figure a way to get a huge Republican-base turnout in a state known for its independence of traditional politics.
It's uncertain how much Trump helps. He did win Alaska twice, but the 52.8% majority he won in 2020 was his fourth-lowest total among red states. That's in part because Alaska had the nation's highest percentage of independent votes cast for president.
That's not an ideal setting for Trump's demagoguery. Calling Murkowski "the failed candidate…(who) represents her state badly and her country even worse" -- as he did according to Politico last month -- isn't a great strategy for recruiting second-choice votes for Tshibaka among Murkowski fans.
Nor is Trump's promise to travel 5,000 miles to campaign against Murkowski. Nor is what he said Friday, as reported by the New York Times.
"Lisa Murkowski is bad for Alaska," Mr. Trump said in a statement, criticizing her vote to confirm Deb Haaland as secretary of the Interior Department. "Murkowski has got to go!"
For her part, Murkowski is not to be underestimated. She has won three full Senate terms since her controversial appointment to the seat in 2002 by her father, then-Gov. Frank Murkowski. She has never won 50 percent of the vote in winning her elections, but she even succeeded as an independent when beaten in the 2010 Republican primary after a Tea Party uprising.
This time might be different. She wasn't then facing a competitive challenger on the Democratic side like Gross, a center-right, pro-gun politically independent doctor who raised a staggering $19 million for his first electoral foray in 2020.
The Change Research poll found Murkowski with a 59-to-26 percent negative overall approval rating among Alaskans, including an astonishing 84-to-6 negative standing in her own Republican Party. It's an uphill battle at best.
Still, if Gross doesn't run and the Democrats don't field a strong contender in his place, Murkowski could eke out a triumph in the end even after finishing well behind Tshibaka in the initial round. That is, if she can hold Tshibaka far enough below 50 percent in round one.
It's a scenario anticipated by the reformers who put ranked voting on the 2020 ballot: A divisive candidate can no longer leverage a narrow primary victory to breeze to office through electoral math. And the more a candidate alienates rivals, the harder it is to grow one's vote totals as those rivals get eliminated in the ranked-choice process.
Trump's negative attacks could conceivably backfire and help rescue Murkowski, which would be his worst nightmare. But for now, the more plausible prospect is that Alaska could turn blue -- for at least this one Senate seat -- thanks to ranked voting.
Obviously, it's far too early to know, but not too early to understand how the new process works. For a state that prides itself as America's "last great wilderness," the 2022 election may live up to that claim.
You can learn more about the new ballot process here and here.
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'Not good signs for the Republican Party': GOP lawmakers have a problem with their own voters
June 20, 2021
In a column for the Los Angeles Times, longtime political observer Doyle McManus pointed out that the Republican leadership is finding itself put into a corner by the more extreme elements in the party -- from far-right GOP lawmakers who excuse violence and conservative voters who see no problem with it.
With Sen. Ron Johnson (R-WI) excusing the rioters who stormed the U.S. Capitol on Jan 6th and Rep. Andrew S. Clyde claiming the insurrectionists were merely "tourists," Republicans are now confronted with the optics of being the party that condones violence.
According to McManus, Republicans refusing to take a firm stance against political violence is not a good sign for a party that just lost the Senate and the White House.
The problem, he wrote, is that a substantial number of the GOP's most fervent supporters have said they are fine with the use of force to hold political power.
"A significant chunk of the party's most fervent supporters aren't so sure [the insurrection was damaging], and they illustrate the GOP's dilemma. At a time when the party needs every vote it can muster, it can't risk alienating loyal supporters, even if they embrace violence, " he wrote. "In a survey by the conservative American Enterprise Institute after the riot in January, 56% of Republicans agreed that 'the traditional American way of life is disappearing so fast that we may have to use force to save it.'"
According to the columnist, those voters are holding the party hostage as they try to woo voters back after four years of Donald Trump.
"In the same poll, 79% of Republicans said they still had a favorable view of Trump — and 36% said 'very favorable.' That consensus has made GOP politicians fearful of crossing Trump or questioning the actions of his most zealous supporters, including the Jan. 6 revolutionaries," McManus explained before noting, "Republican officials in both Georgia and Arizona, where Trump is still agitating to reverse the election results, say their families have been physically threatened by the former president's supporters."
"This is the Republican Party's problem, and Republicans need to solve it. They are trying to tiptoe around a fundamental problem: Their candidate lost a presidential election, but he not only refuses to accept the voters' verdict; he wants his party to 'fight' to restore him to power," he wrote before warning, "They want to move past the embarrassment of Jan. 6 — but that can't happen until they settle their internal debate: Are they a party that condones extraconstitutional violence or not?"
You can read more here.
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Trump's announcement of rallies with Bill O'Reilly sets off furious backlash among QAnon supporters: report
June 20, 2021
According to a report from Newsweek, Donald Trump's announcement that he will be touring with former Fox News personality Bill O'Reilly in December was greeted with dismay and incredulity by QAnon followers who believed he would already have been reinstalled as president in August.
The tour, which will include stops in Sunrise, Florida, then Orlando before moving on to Houston and ending in Dallas on December 19, carries a ticket price of $100, with Trump announcing, "My tour with Bill O'Reilly is getting a lot of attention, and I'm looking forward to it. Maybe tickets would make a great Father's Day gift? In any event, I'll see you then, and much sooner."
That announcement set off a flurry of comments on Telegram -- a popular forum for QAnon adherents -- who reacted with confusion and anger.
According to Newsweek's Ewan Palmer, "Supporters of the radical movement expressed concerns that Trump going on a speaking tour later this year surely means that he will not be returning a president—a false claim they have continued to believe since he lost the 2020 election more than seven months ago."
As one Telegram user, identified as Peace Lilly, wrote, "OK I GUESS MY QUESTION IS TRUMP COMING BACK? WHY WOULD HE BE DOING A TOUR THRU THE END OF THE YEAR WITH O'REILLY. HMMMMMMMMM SOMETHING DOESN'T FEEL RIGHT?."
"So nothing will happen until December?" wrote another, with a third adding, "Man I sure hope we don't have to wait that long before you're back in office."
"It's only a few dates close together...it could be done if it works out like it should...could cancel....but yup..kinda a gut punch statement. But we are in an information war, so who the hell knows," wrote another with Trump supporter Angela Baldwin writing, "So basically the August thing is a bunch of bull because a reinstated President doesn't go on tour."
Newsweeks' Palmer added that many QAnon followers are still pinning their hopes on the Arizona ballot audit, believing it will set in motion overturning the 2020 presidential election results and reinstall Trump in the Oval Office.
You can read more here.
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