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Trump’s 2020 defeat ‘set in stone’: Winning presidential election predictor

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A political scientist who accurately predicted the midterm blue wave months before it happened issued another prediction in the New York Times Thursday — that Donald Trump is going to lose in 2020.

“What if I were to tell you that barring a significant unforeseen shock to the system,” Christopher Newport University political professor Dr. Rachel Bitecofer wrote, “the outcome of 2020 is already set in stone?”

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Leading up to the midterms, Bitecofer created a forecasting model informed by partisan polarization in American politics. In particular, she focused on the concept of “negative partisanship” in which people from the party not in power develop a fever to vote for candidates opposing that which is.

“Motivated by the threat posed by the Trump administration, casual Democratic voters, especially college-educated women, have been activated since Mr. Trump’s election and will remain activated so long as the threat he presents to them remains,” the political scientist wrote.

Gone is the “complacent Democratic electorate of the 2010 and 2014 congressional midterms as well as the 2016 presidential election,” Bitecofer wrote. “It has been replaced by a galvanized Democratic electorate that will produce the same structural advantage for Democrats that manifested in the 2018 midterms.”

She predicted that the Democratic “surge won’t be uniform” — that the party will keep losing ground in states like Missouri while making gains in “urban, more diverse, better-educated and more liberal-friendly states.”

“In short,” Bitecofer wrote, “the 2020 presidential election is shaping up as a battle of the bases, and the Democrats’ base is simply bigger.”

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“We’ll spend the next 21 months captivated by an election whose outcome may already be determined because of polarization and negative partisanship,” she concluded. “Democrats have a clear path to recapturing the White House. It is hard to imagine any other president facing these conditions running for re-election. But needless to say, Mr. Trump isn’t just any other president.”


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Trump plans to attack the ‘left wing mob’ in culture war tirade at Mount Rushmore: report

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On Friday evening, President Donald Trump will deliver a Fourth of July speech in front of Mount Rushmore. And according to ABC News reporter Will Steakin, the president plans to use the speech to engage in culture war saber-rattling, attacking the "left wing mob" for pushing to remove Confederate statues and other monuments that glorify racist aspects of American history.

Trump Rushmore speech will slam “left wing mob” trying to tear down “our history," campaign official briefed tells @ABC News

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‘Reprehensible’ cops fired for reenacting chokehold at memorial site: ‘A crime against humanity and decency’

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Four former police officers are out of work over "reprehensible" photos taken at a memorial site where a 23-year-old Black man was killed by police while walking home.

"Aurora’s interim police chief on Friday fired two of the three officers who posed for a photo last October reenacting a chokehold at the site of Elijah McClain’s violent arrest — the third officer already had resigned — and terminated another officer who received the photo," The Denver Post reported Friday. "That officer, Jason Rosenblatt, was one of the three officers involved in McClain’s death last summer."

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DC police union buried in mockery after accidentally revealing their own incompetence in stopping crime

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On Friday, the Twitter account for the Washington, D.C. police union posted statistics on a recent upswing in crime rates in the area — trying to imply that police accountability reforms in the wake of the George Floyd killing are preventing officers from doing their jobs.

YoY Crime Stats in DC 6/3 - 7/3

Homicide ⬆️28%Armed Robbery ⬆️33%Shootings ⬆️41%Burglary ⬆️45%Stolen Auto ⬆️45%

This is what ‘knee-jerk’ policies look like in your neighborhood.

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