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Trump’s 2020 defeat ‘set in stone’: Winning presidential election predictor

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A political scientist who accurately predicted the midterm blue wave months before it happened issued another prediction in the New York Times Thursday — that Donald Trump is going to lose in 2020.

“What if I were to tell you that barring a significant unforeseen shock to the system,” Christopher Newport University political professor Dr. Rachel Bitecofer wrote, “the outcome of 2020 is already set in stone?”

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Leading up to the midterms, Bitecofer created a forecasting model informed by partisan polarization in American politics. In particular, she focused on the concept of “negative partisanship” in which people from the party not in power develop a fever to vote for candidates opposing that which is.

“Motivated by the threat posed by the Trump administration, casual Democratic voters, especially college-educated women, have been activated since Mr. Trump’s election and will remain activated so long as the threat he presents to them remains,” the political scientist wrote.

Gone is the “complacent Democratic electorate of the 2010 and 2014 congressional midterms as well as the 2016 presidential election,” Bitecofer wrote. “It has been replaced by a galvanized Democratic electorate that will produce the same structural advantage for Democrats that manifested in the 2018 midterms.”

She predicted that the Democratic “surge won’t be uniform” — that the party will keep losing ground in states like Missouri while making gains in “urban, more diverse, better-educated and more liberal-friendly states.”

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“In short,” Bitecofer wrote, “the 2020 presidential election is shaping up as a battle of the bases, and the Democrats’ base is simply bigger.”

“We’ll spend the next 21 months captivated by an election whose outcome may already be determined because of polarization and negative partisanship,” she concluded. “Democrats have a clear path to recapturing the White House. It is hard to imagine any other president facing these conditions running for re-election. But needless to say, Mr. Trump isn’t just any other president.”


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BUSTED: Trump-loving sheriff tried to murder deputy who caught him on tape making racist remarks

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A North Carolina Sheriff and Trump supporter reportedly plotted to murder a man who had a tape of him making racially offensive remarks, reports the Raleigh News and Observer.

Granville County Sheriff Brindell Wilkins was indicted Monday, based on a recording of Brindell advising a man on how to kill a former deputy who accused him of racist language.

According to court records, the sheriff told another person to “take care of it” and “the only way you gonna stop him is kill him.”

He instructed him to get rid of the weapon. “You ain’t got the weapon, you ain’t got nothing to go on,” Wilkins said. “The only way we find out these murder things is people talk. You can’t tell nobody, not a thing.” The conversation took place in 2014.

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Judiciary Democrats schedule Trump ‘corruption’ hearing on ’emoluments and profiting off the presidency’

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The House Judiciary Committee has scheduled a "corruption" hearing on President Donald Trump's business practices.

The committee on Tuesday, which is controlled by Democrats, posted a notification about the hearing on its website.

The hearing is titled "Presidential Corruption: Emoluments and Profiting Off the Presidency." It is scheduled for Sept. 23 at 2 pm. A witness list was not immediately available.

Trump's opponents have argued that he has violated the Emoluments Clause of the U.S. Constitution by profiting off foreign dignitaries who visit his hotels and restaurants.

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House GOP loses yet another incumbent as California’s Paul Cook announces retirement

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Another day, another retirement for House Republicans.

The Los Angeles Times reports that Rep. Paul Cook R-CA) is heading for the exits and retiring at the end of his term in 2020.

Instead of serving in Congress for another term, Cook will run for a seat on the San Bernardino County Board of Supervisors, the congressman's chief of staff tells the Los Angeles Times.

Even though Democrats made major gains in California during the 2018 midterm elections, Cook's district will be difficult for the party to pick up. Cook last year won reelection with 60 percent of the vote and his opponent wasn't even a Democrat, but fellow Republican Tim Donnelly.

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