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The one chart that might show if the US economy is headed towards a massive downturn

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Between the impact of the government shutdown and President Donald Trump’s trade wars with China, economists fear that the US is headed towards a drastic economic downturn. Presiding over a strong economy is part of President Donald Trump’s main argument for re-election.

According to Business Insider, a metric that could indicate the future of America’s financial health must combine a complex set of factors and focus on change—rather than current levels—of these variables.

The Insider highlights the work of Neil Shearing, the group chief economist at research house Capital Economics.

“If you only watch one chart, make sure its this one,” Shearing points out.

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“Will the recent weakness in a broad swathe of economic data be a flash in the pan or does it herald the start of a new global downturn?” Shearing asked, based on the chart. “The answer is likely to depend in part on what happens to financial conditions.”

These conditions include variables like interest rates, credit spreads, stock prices, and currency levels.

He notes that because each nation’s economy is so tied up to the fate of other nations, any probe into US’s economic future require looking on the global stage. “It’s rare that financial conditions in one major economy tighten without there being a similar tightening in the others,” he writes.

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He adds that change in economic indicators is more important than whether they are high or low. “We should therefore put more emphasis on changes in our financial conditions indicators rather than their level,” Shearing said.

He makes the following prediction.

“If the recent stabilization is a sign of things to come then it becomes easier to believe that the weakness in the latest economic data will be a flash in the pan,” he writes.

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“By contrast, if financial conditions start to tighten once again (and our sense is that they probably will) then we’re likely to feel the consequences in terms of a further slowdown in growth over the coming quarters.

“Either way,” he says. “This is the chart to watch over the coming months.”


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Trump calls four Dem lawmakers ‘very racist troublemakers’ in latest angry Twitter tirade

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President Donald Trump on Monday once again launched an attack on Reps. Ilhan Omar (D-MN), Rashida Tlaib (D-MI), Ayanna Pressley (D-MA) and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) in an angry Twitter tirade.

"The 'Squad' is a very Racist group of troublemakers who are young, inexperienced, and not very smart," the president wrote. "They are pulling the once great Democrat Party far left, and were against humanitarian aid at the Border...And are now against ICE and Homeland Security. So bad for our Country!"

The “Squad” is a very Racist group of troublemakers who are young, inexperienced, and not very smart. They are pulling the once great Democrat Party far left, and were against humanitarian aid at the Border...And are now against ICE and Homeland Security. So bad for our Country!

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Vogue editor Anna Wintour refuses to talk about Melania Trump so she can lavish praise on Michelle Obama

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Vogue editor and fashion doyenne Anna Wintour had little good to say about current First Lady Melania Trump in an interview with the Economist, choosing instead to lavish praise on Michelle Obama as the "best ambassador this country could possibly have."

In the interview, which can be heard below, Anna McElvoy wanted to talk about Melania but Wintour seemed to have no interest in the former fashion model from Slovenia who is currently the third wife of Donald Trump.

“[Melania] I think, very consciously, wanted to see herself as an ambassador for British fashion, in this case, or a transatlantic ambassador,” McElvoy asked, pointing to the first lady's recent trip to the U.K. “I mean, do you value that?”

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‘Offered up for abuse’: Jeffrey Epstein and Charlie Rose conferred about new assistants the PBS host could sexually harass

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Disgraced former PBS host Charlie Rose and accused billionaire pedophile Jeffrey Epstein allegedly had conversations about women whom Rose should hire and whom he would then go on to sexually harass.

New York Magazine reporter Irin Carmon has a bombshell story about Epstein's call logs that show his regular interactions with multiple powerful men during a time when prosecutors say he was running a sex trafficking ring for underage girls.

Of particular interest are his calls with Rose, who was fired by PBS in 2017 after multiple women came forward to accuse him of being a serial sexual harasser.

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