When Attorney General Bill Barr sent a summary of the Russia investigation's findings to Congress on Sunday, saying that Special Counsel Robert Mueller did not establish the Trump campaign conspired with the Kremlin, much speculation and hope that the president could be booted from office early as a result of the probe vanished. The conclusion of the obstruction of justice investigation looks much more ambiguous at this point, but it would likely have had to have been a decisive conclusion to convince the Senate to oust Trump.
Though it's true many will be disappointed in this outcome, one reaction to the news is almost certainly false:
Lederman, an NBC News reporter, seems to have missed many important aspects of the emerging 2020 dynamic.
While the candidates thus far can be critical of Trump's relationship to Russia, there's absolutely no indication that any of them were banking on Mueller's findings being devastating for the president.
In fact, insofar as the attorney general's summary makes it less likely that Trump will be impeached, Democrats may see this as an electoral advantage. They largely see Trump as a particularly weak incumbent in 2020 — his approval ratings have been historically low, especially given the relatively positive economic indicators — and they would be happy to run against him. A failed impeachment bid could also stoke Trump's own supporters and drum up his support, as many of the president's allies have been saying. President Bill Clinton, after all, remained quite popular even during his failed impeachment proceedings.
And even if impeachment succeeded, the Democrat would have to face Vice President Mike Pence in 2020, who may turn out to be a stronger contender than Trump.
Meanwhile, if you look at Democrats' campaigns, they've largely ignored Trump. The 2018 election, a huge victory for Democrats, was primarily run on the issue of health care. 2020 Democrats are running on Medicare-for-All, taking on big business, restoring voting rights, and a broad swath of other bold initiatives — Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) just proposed a plan to raise teachers' pay.
It's possible Trump could get a polling boost in the near future with the conclusion of the investigation. But by Election Day 2020, those effects will wash out, and voters will be tired of hearing about "no collusion," and they'll want to pull the lever for the candidate they think represents the best path forward for the country. Mueller's report won't change that.
Unsurprisingly, then, Lederman faced a fair amount of blowback on Twitter:
