President Donald Trump barely won during 2016, scoring vital electoral states by mere thousands. He's done little to win friends and help Americans, however, and it may cause him problems in the 2020 general election.
According to Axios, polling in several states Trump won show him in a cavern he'll have to climb out of.
Factoring in demographic shifts, Republicans should worry about Arizona, Georgia, Texas and other states they often consider easy wins for them.
Hillary Clinton beat Trump by 3 million raw votes, but due to slight victories in states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania, Trump was narrowly able to be victorious, with less than 100,000 votes. Looking at those states today, is a different story.
"That's part of the reason for the fascination with more centrist Democrats like Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), Beto O'Rourke (D-TX) and former Vice President Joe Biden," Axios wrote Sunday. "The states that Trump won, but could easily lose, are swingy — not super-liberal."
Statewide polls in Wisconsin reveal Trump "has a precarious path to victory," said the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. Trump's opposition has now surpassed his job approval.
The Detroit Free Press similarly warns of "serious headwinds" for the president.
"Less than half of likely voters believe he’s doing a good job, according to some recent polls, and many, if not most, plan to vote for someone else," the paper reported.
Politico reported that Democratic gains in Pennsylvania during the 2018 midterms should alarm the GOP.
"A GOP collapse threatens to torpedo Donald Trump’s re-election prospects," the site said.
Pundits have marveled at the percentage of Republicans that continue to support Trump. While the percentage may look impressive, the actual numbers are a problem for the GOP. According to the Brookings Institute, in 2004 Republican affiliation was at nearly 40 percent. But by 2016, it had fallen to about 30 percent. The most recent polls indicate Republican affiliation has dropped to about 20 percent, particularly among young people and women.
Politico reported before the 2018 election that women in the GOP still overwhelmingly support the president, but women that don't support Trump are abandoning the party, and maybe for good.
"According to pollsters on both sides of the aisle, that doesn’t bode well for the Republican Party either in this fall’s midterms—which are likely to bring a record gap between how men and women vote—or for the party’s long-term future," the piece said. It proved to be accurate, electing more Democrats to Congress than expected.
The Pew Research Center cited 42 percent of women identified or leaned Republican in 1994, today that's 37 percent. By contrast, 48 percent of women identified as Democrats in 1994, while that number increased to 56 percent in 2017.
Unfortunately for Trump, however, his party seems to be searching for another brand. Axios quoted the Iowa Poll that cited 67 percent of Republicans saying they would vote to reelect Trump, with just 27 percent considering someone else. But 40 percent of those want another person to run against Trump. All Democrats would need is a candidate who could appeal to those 40 percent, and they might be successful.
