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Trump may be screwed in 2020 — even with a good economy: polling expert

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Even with a strong economy and the end of special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation, President Donald Trump’s poll numbers have remained at historic lows — and according to FiveThirtyEight’s average of poll numbers, Trump has the highest disapproval rating of any president ever at this point in his first term.

G. Elliott Morris, a polling expert who writes for The Economist, has written an analysis showing that American voters no longer correlate the current state of the economy with their approval of the president as they have in the past, and he says that bodes poorly for Trump in 2020.

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Morris writes that, given historical trends, Trump’s approval should be around 60 percent given that he’s presiding over an economy that has low unemployment and low inflation. However, the president’s approval ratings are consistently in the low 40s, while polls also show more than half of American voters disapprove of his performance.

“Partisanship now colors Americans’ reading of the economy, as it colors their views on many other things,” he argues. “Polling on behalf of The Economist by YouGov shows that Republicans are four times as optimistic as Democrats about the state of the stock market, which Mr. Trump often cheers on. Liberals complain about high housing costs and low wage growth — never mind that wages are growing more strongly now than towards the end of Mr. Obama’s term.”

In other words, Morris concludes, “it’s not any longer the economy… it’s the partisanship.”

During the 2018 midterm elections, Democrats won the popular vote for the House by more than eight percentage points, and voting totals lined up strongly with Trump’s approval ratings at the time. If that trend holds in 2020, as Morris suggests it could regardless of the state of the economy, Trump will be in position to lose by double digits.

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Enjoy this piece?

… then let us make a small request. Like you, we here at Raw Story believe in the power of progressive journalism — and we’re investing in investigative reporting as other publications give it the ax. Raw Story readers power David Cay Johnston’s DCReport, which we've expanded to keep watch in Washington. We’ve exposed billionaire tax evasion and uncovered White House efforts to poison our water. We’ve revealed financial scams that prey on veterans, and efforts to harm workers exploited by abusive bosses. We’ve launched a weekly podcast, “We’ve Got Issues,” focused on issues, not tweets. Unlike other news sites, we’ve decided to make our original content free. But we need your support to do what we do.

Raw Story is independent. You won’t find mainstream media bias here. We’re not part of a conglomerate, or a project of venture capital bros. From unflinching coverage of racism, to revealing efforts to erode our rights, Raw Story will continue to expose hypocrisy and harm. Unhinged from corporate overlords, we fight to ensure no one is forgotten.

We need your support to keep producing quality journalism and deepen our investigative reporting. Every reader contribution, whatever the amount, makes a tremendous difference. Invest with us in the future. Make a one-time contribution to Raw Story Investigates, or click here to become a subscriber. Thank you.



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Trump is ‘a bottomless pit of emotional need’ with a ‘desperate’ desire for friends: NYT’s Charles Blow

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New York Times editorial writer Charles Blow called out the president in his Sunday editorial for always associating the country with himself.

The byproduct of narcissism is that everything surrounds the narcissist. Such is the case with President Donald Trump's latest series of tweets talking about "My Stock Market" and quoting a fan referring to him as the second coming of Christ.

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‘Disconnected from reality’: NY Times editor ridicules Trump for being a ‘farce’ of a president

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New York Times editorial board member, Michelle Cottle, released a scathing op-ed highlighting the president's tendency to give oxygen to his adversaries that no one else would be paying attention to otherwise.

In a piece relating the White House to a "three-ring" circus, Cottle called the president a "farce" for his new war with Anthony Scaramucci.

As the president tweeted, no one had heard of Scaramucci until Trump hired him and former chief-of-staff John Kelly fired him after only 11 days.

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Trump goes off on Twitter rant about ‘My Stock Market’ at nearly 2 a.m. in France

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President Donald Trump has an early morning meeting Monday with Egypt's President Abdel-Fattah el-Sisi. He also has a full day of meeting with the G-7, but that wasn't his focus in the early morning hours.

"My Stock Market gains must be judged from the day after the Election (sic), November 9, 2016, where the Market went up big after the win, and because of the win. Had my opponent won, CRASH!" Trump tweeted Sunday night in the U.S., which was nearly 2 a.m. in France where the president is staying during the G-7 summit.

My Stock Market gains must be judged from the day after the Election, November 9, 2016, where the Market went up big after the win, and because of the win. Had my opponent won, CRASH!

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