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Trump may be screwed in 2020 — even with a good economy: polling expert

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Even with a strong economy and the end of special counsel Robert Mueller’s investigation, President Donald Trump’s poll numbers have remained at historic lows — and according to FiveThirtyEight’s average of poll numbers, Trump has the highest disapproval rating of any president ever at this point in his first term.

G. Elliott Morris, a polling expert who writes for The Economist, has written an analysis showing that American voters no longer correlate the current state of the economy with their approval of the president as they have in the past, and he says that bodes poorly for Trump in 2020.

Morris writes that, given historical trends, Trump’s approval should be around 60 percent given that he’s presiding over an economy that has low unemployment and low inflation. However, the president’s approval ratings are consistently in the low 40s, while polls also show more than half of American voters disapprove of his performance.

“Partisanship now colors Americans’ reading of the economy, as it colors their views on many other things,” he argues. “Polling on behalf of The Economist by YouGov shows that Republicans are four times as optimistic as Democrats about the state of the stock market, which Mr. Trump often cheers on. Liberals complain about high housing costs and low wage growth — never mind that wages are growing more strongly now than towards the end of Mr. Obama’s term.”

In other words, Morris concludes, “it’s not any longer the economy… it’s the partisanship.”

During the 2018 midterm elections, Democrats won the popular vote for the House by more than eight percentage points, and voting totals lined up strongly with Trump’s approval ratings at the time. If that trend holds in 2020, as Morris suggests it could regardless of the state of the economy, Trump will be in position to lose by double digits.

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2020 Election

BUSTED: Trump super PAC accused of lying to government about the source of mysterious $325,000 donation

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According to a report from the Daily Beast's "Pay Dirt" investigative unit, a Super PAC affiliated with President Donald Trump has some explaining to do about a $375,000 donation that was wrongly attributed to one company -- but wire transfers tell a completely different story.

As the Beast notes, "The super PAC America First Action reported receiving a $325,000 contribution last year from a company called Global Energy Producers. But records released in federal court this week indicate that contribution came from an entirely different company," adding that the discrepancy was pointed out by the  Campaign Legal Center which labeled it a violation of federal campaign-finance laws.

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Senate delivers stinging bipartisan rebuke to Trump — and blocks Saudi arms sales

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The Trump White House suffered a stinging defeat on Thursday when a bipartisan coalition of lawmakers voted to block sales of American arms to Saudi Arabia.

The vote in favor of blocking the arms sales received affirmative votes from all Senate Democrats, as well as votes from Sens. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), Susan Collins (R-ME), Jerry Moran (R-KS), Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), Rand Paul (R-KY), Mike Lee (R-UT) and Todd Young (R-IN).

Graham, who is usually one of President Donald Trump's staunchest allies, said he voted for the bill because he believed the United States could not ignore the behavior of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman, as well as the Saudi government's killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

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2020 Election

Panicked GOP leaders scrambling to get Jeff Sessions to run for Senate so they won’t be saddled with Roy Moore

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According to a 2020 election analysis in the Washington Post, top Republican Senate leaders are cringing at the notion that former Alabama Supreme Court Justice Roy Moore could be their nominee for the seat currently being held by Democrat Sen. Doug Jones -- and are looking for a way out.

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