President Donald Trump trails all of his Democratic rivals in hypothetical matchups of the 2020 presidential race, according to the result of a new poll released Tuesday.
The survey, conducted by Emerson Polling, found that the president lags behind former vice president Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., by 10 points nationally — 45 percent to 55 percent. He also trails Sen. Elizabeth Warren by six points — 47 percent to 53 percent —and Sen. Kamala Harris, D-Calif., and South Bend, Ind. Mayor Pete Buttigieg by four points — 48 percent to 52 percent.
In regards to the crowded Democratic primary field, Spencer Kimball, director of the Emerson Poll, pointed out: “Similar to our other polls, Biden and Sanders voters are the most loyal with 50 percent to 55 percent saying they are set on their candidates.”
“Comparatively, 33 percent of Warren, 18 percent of Harris and 17 percent of Buttigieg voters say they will stick with their current choices,” he added. “This suggests that about 30 percent of the Democratic electorate are spoken for and another 30 percent leaning toward the top two candidates as of now leaves a narrow lane for another candidate to grab a plurality of the vote.”
The survey also showed that Trump maintains a steady approval rating of 43 percent, while his disapproval rating has dropping one point since last month to 48 percent.
It also found a gender gap among approval rating for the president, with 47 percent of male respondents approving and 47 percent disapproving of his job in office, as compared to females where 49 percent disapprove and 39 percent approve.
Several other national polls in recent weeks have showed Trump trailing Biden, who has held a commanding lead over the 2020 Democratic presidential field ahead of the first debates on June 26 and June 27. Other polling has indicated Biden leads Trump in several critical battleground states, including in internal polling conducted by the president’s re-election campaign.
Trump severed ties with three of his five pollsters after leaked internal polling showed him lagging behind Biden. The polling, conducted by the Trump campaign’s lead pollster Tony Fabrizio between March 13 and March 28, found Trump trailing Biden by double-digits across swing states seen as crucial to his re-election victory and in Democratic-leaning states where Republicans have sought to gain momentum. It also showed Trump underperforming in reliably red states that have not been competitive for decades in presidential elections.
Trump has angrily denied coverage of the numbers, telling reporters last week, “Those polls don’t exist. I just had a meeting with somebody that’s a pollster and I’m winning everywhere, so I just don’t know what you’re talking about.”
He also tweeted that his numbers are “the best numbers WE have ever had,” and claimed the numbers reported were from “Fake Polling.”
The Emerson College poll was conducted between June 21 and June 24 among 1,096 registered voters. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percent.
Here’s how Trump hopes to recreate his 2016 presidential win — and how Democrats can send him packing
Writing for CNN on Saturday, election forecaster Harry Enten explained how President Donald Trump's recent, racist behavior lies in his desire to recreate the same electoral conditions that gave him a victory in 2016 in the presidential election next year.
"The Trump strategy is pretty simple: 1. Drive up the unfavorable ratings of his Democratic rival as he did in 2016 in order to compensate for his own low ratings. 2. Bank on an electoral college/popular vote split as he did in 2016. 3. Use a campaign of racial resentment to drive up turnout even more among groups favorable toward the President," wrote Enten. As he noted, Democrats have excellent odds to flip back Michigan and Pennsylvania, but they will have to work harder to win back any of the other states Trump flipped from the 2012 Obama camp — in particular Wisconsin, which was the closest state after those two.
Do politicians actually care about your opinions? This researcher says no
Earlier this month, a New York Times op-ed written by two political science professors, Ethan Porter of George Washington University and Joshua Kalla of Yale, discussed their troubling research findings: State legislators, the two claim, don't much care about the opinions of their constituents, even if they're given detailed data regarding their views.
This article first appeared in Salon.
Mitch McConnell’s big donors are Wall Street firms — and only 9% of his funds comes from Kentucky
Wall Street contributions helped Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell raise $3 million last quarter. But just 9 percent of his donations came from individual donors in his home state of Kentucky.
The biggest blocks of contributions to McConnell’s campaign between April and June came from 29 donors at New York’s Blackstone Group, who donated a combined $95,400, and from 14 executives from the financial firm KKR & Co., who contributed a combined $51,000, the Louisville Courier Journal reports. Executives from firms like Apollo Global Management and Golden Tree Asset Management contributed another combined $65,100.