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Here’s how Trump hopes to recreate his 2016 presidential win — and how Democrats can send him packing

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Writing for CNN on Saturday, election forecaster Harry Enten explained how President Donald Trump’s recent, racist behavior lies in his desire to recreate the same electoral conditions that gave him a victory in 2016 in the presidential election next year.

“The Trump strategy is pretty simple: 1. Drive up the unfavorable ratings of his Democratic rival as he did in 2016 in order to compensate for his own low ratings. 2. Bank on an electoral college/popular vote split as he did in 2016. 3. Use a campaign of racial resentment to drive up turnout even more among groups favorable toward the President,” wrote Enten. As he noted, Democrats have excellent odds to flip back Michigan and Pennsylvania, but they will have to work harder to win back any of the other states Trump flipped from the 2012 Obama camp — in particular Wisconsin, which was the closest state after those two.

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“Trump’s making a bet that he can link the Democratic nominee to this ‘squad’ — the aforementioned group of congresswomen of color that he has lobbed attacks at. Remember, that’s exactly how he won in 2016: an unpopular Democratic opponent,” said Enten. “In Wisconsin, for example, Trump had a favorable rating of only 35%. He won the state because he ran up a 37-point margin against Clinton among the 22% of the electorate who had an unfavorable view of both Clinton and Trump.”

While this strategy is fairly straightforward, Enten said, there are many ways Trump could fail — and ways Democrats could defeat it.

“Trump’s Republican Party lost the 2018 midterm elections, which were held under similar conditions as today. Trump’s net approval rating was -9 points in the 2018 exit poll. The result was that Trump’s Republican Party lost 40 House seats and the House popular vote by 9 points,” wrote Enten. “In the final weeks of that cycle, Republicans were not helped by Trump continuously pointing out in the final weeks of that campaign that migrants were coming up through Central America. Voters who decided in the final month of the 2018 campaign were as likely to vote Democratic as those who decided before then.”

“It remains unclear if Trump can compensate his unpopularity by demonizing the Democratic nominee this time around,” said Enten. “And remember, Trump also risks raising turnout among nonwhite voters. That’s not a big deal in a state like Wisconsin, which is very white. It could, however, take Sunbelt states moving to the left, like Arizona and Texas, and put them into play for the Democrats.”

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Enten’s analysis suggests important things for Democrats: stay unified, fight on the Midwest turf that Trump only barely won before, and focus on turnout in racially diversifying Southern areas that are trending left. If this happens, Trump’s narrow path to victory in 2016 may not be replicable.

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Enjoy this piece?

… then let us make a small request. Like you, we here at Raw Story believe in the power of progressive journalism — and we’re investing in investigative reporting as other publications give it the ax. Raw Story readers power David Cay Johnston’s DCReport, which we've expanded to keep watch in Washington. We’ve exposed billionaire tax evasion and uncovered White House efforts to poison our water. We’ve revealed financial scams that prey on veterans, and efforts to harm workers exploited by abusive bosses. We’ve launched a weekly podcast, “We’ve Got Issues,” focused on issues, not tweets. Unlike other news sites, we’ve decided to make our original content free. But we need your support to do what we do.

Raw Story is independent. You won’t find mainstream media bias here. We’re not part of a conglomerate, or a project of venture capital bros. From unflinching coverage of racism, to revealing efforts to erode our rights, Raw Story will continue to expose hypocrisy and harm. Unhinged from corporate overlords, we fight to ensure no one is forgotten.

We need your support to keep producing quality journalism and deepen our investigative reporting. Every reader contribution, whatever the amount, makes a tremendous difference. Invest with us in the future. Make a one-time contribution to Raw Story Investigates, or click here to become a subscriber. Thank you.



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2020 Election

Rick Wilson warns ‘Donald Trump is not a well man’ and is now ‘speaking in tongues’

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President Donald Trump is mentally unwell, a top strategist explained on MSNBC on Thursday.

"A few 24 hours after a sustained presidential performance that even by Donald Trump’s standard qualified as unhinged and unnerving, the world is reeling and offering a collective judgment of omg and wtf. That is a concise summary of this morning’s headlines," anchor John Heilemann reported.

"To help you grasp the full scope of the presidential meltdown, we offer you this," he said, introducing a clip of Trump.

"This string of absurdities might seem mildly funny at times but to Trump’s own former aides, what they witnessed in recent days crossed the threshold from amusing to alarming," he explained.

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2020 Election

Ex-Trump official bashes White House ‘apologists’ who haven’t quit yet: ‘There’s not much hope for them’

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A report on the silence coming from first daughter Ivanka Trump and her White House advisor husband Jared Kushner after Donald Trump attacked American Jews turned to the future of White House aides who are either complicit in the president's policies or stand idly by as he lurches from controversy to controversy.

In an interview with CNN's Brianna Keilar, former Trump adviser J.W. Verret pointed out there are still some "adults in the room" with Trump, but CNN's Kaitlan Collins first pointed out that -- as of late -- Ivanka and Kushner are not among them.

"This fits a pattern that we've seen from Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump at times during times when the administration tried to repeal parts of Obamacare, and of course, the big one the president has made about Jewish people who are supporting Democrats," Collins explained. "Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump are both Orthodox Jews. They've been involved with the president on many things. but neither of them have said anything publicly about the president's comments. and when we asked the white house have they been advising the president privately on this, the White House did not get back to us."

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2020 Election

‘Unhinged, erratic and nuts’: Conservative warns Trump’s ‘chosen one’ outburst should set off alarms

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In her column for the Washington Post, conservative never-Trumper Jennifer Rubin implored Republicans to look deep down inside themselves and stop defending Donald Trump after the president bizarrely declared himself the "chosen one" while speaking to the press on Wednesday.

Under a headline, "Trump’s unhinged display should frighten everyone,"Rubin ticked off comments made by the president in the past week since he returned from vacation including expressing a desire to buy Greenland, proposing -- then backing off -- new tax policies and calling Jews "disloyal" and wondered what it will take for people to see that the president is "nuts."

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