A map of the United States Electoral College projects that President Donald Trump would suffer a historic and humiliating defeat if the 2020 election were held today.
Matt Rogers, the chief of staff for Democratic Virginia state Senator David Marsden, has broken down the latest state-by-state approval numbers for Trump in the Civiqs tracking poll and has estimated that the president would receive a mere 119 electoral votes were the election held today, whereas his Democratic opponent would receive a whopping 419.
@Civiqs OH MY! 👀 Here is Donald Trump's current approval rating in all 50 states converted into Electoral College… https://t.co/REUMWTDkYM— Matt Rogers 🗳 (@Matt Rogers 🗳)1565622609.0
Of course, there are several mitigating factors that could benefit the president: Namely, there isn't yet a defined rival to oppose him, people who disapprove of his job performance may either still vote for him or vote for a third-party candidate instead of a Democrat, and the election is still well over a year away.
At the same time, the latest projection marks a severe deterioration of the president's standing over the past month. When Rogers ran the state-by-state projection on July 24th, for example, he estimated that Trump would receive 211 electoral votes based on his current approval numbers, whereas a Democrat would get 327.
Here is Donald Trump's approval rating today in all 50 states converted into Electoral College format, per @Civiqs… https://t.co/9LZp7aelv3— Matt Rogers 🗳 (@Matt Rogers 🗳)1564000099.0