The political scientist who correctly predicted the 2018 elections says Democrats left seats on the table in the midterms — and can win them in 2020.
Rachel Bitecofer, assistant director of the Judy Ford Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University in Newport News, Virginia, was interviewed by MSNBC’s Lawrence O’Donnell on “The Last Word.”
“Could you explain to the viewers how it is you determine what it was that actually did win a given congressional district?” O’Donnell asked. “When there is this common belief that, oh, well, the Democrats ran because the Republicans threatened their health care and so some swing voters switched over from Republican voting to democratic voting.”
“I’m really glad you asked that. I mean, what I’m arguing is not just a model, it’s a whole fundamental shift in how you understand elections and it’s two-fold,” Bitecofer replied.
“Number one, I’m arguing the way to understand elections in terms of competitiveness now is really based on two things, partisan competition, which is basically a measure of polarization. So a district or a state has to have a certain level of competition that is doable,” she explained.
“But the other thing that I identified is this realignment that’s going on in the electorate and the demographic that’s really a great indicator of that is college education. So for a long time, Republicans had the advantage with college-educated voters, but as you were just citing in that polling data, college education is now it’s an indication of Democratic vote support, not Republican,” she noted. “And, you know, the obvious reasons for what you’ve been watch going on in the Republican Party over this last decade.”
“So when I looked at my model, that’s what I was looking for is, not, you know, just do you have a compelling story like Amy McGrath, but do you have these district conditions that can produce this huge turnout surge that it can flip,” she explained.
“And that’s why, you know, Democrats they did quite well in the midterms, but they left things on the table and I identify, you know, 18 races — especially in Texas — where Democrats just failed to understand, oh, high rates of college education, high rates of diversity in suburban areas around Dallas that they could have picked up in the last cycle and if they target it in 2020, they should be able to pick up in this cycle,” she concluded.
White House adviser warned colleagues Nancy Pelosi would eventually bring Trump down: ‘She’s an assassin’
In an excerpt from the new book "A Very Stable Genius," former Donald Trump adviser Steve Bannon predicted that now-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi would eventually attempt to bring the president down one way or the other.
According to Axios, the book states, "The night of January 23 , the first Monday of his presidency, Trump came face‑to‑face with House and Senate leaders from both parties at a White House reception ... At a long table in the State Dining Room, Steve Bannon ... could not stop looking at Nancy Pelosi..."
These 6 GOP senators have negative approval ratings — threatening Republican control in 2020
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) may not be in control of the body following the 2020 elections. In fact, he might not even be a senator.
On Thursday, Morning Consult released a new poll on all 100 senators, based on 494,899 interviews with voters. The survey had some major red flags for Republicans hoping to hold control of the chamber in 2020.
President Donald Trump's impeachment trial is putting enormous pressure on vulnerable Republicans, Morning Consult's Eli Yokley explained.
It’s 2020 and Florida’s Supreme Court just ruled in favor of a poll tax
"Florida cannot violate the U.S. Constitution's protections. The right to vote cannot be contingent on the ability to pay."
Florida's state Supreme Court on Thursday ruled in favor of denying convicted felons the right to vote if they do not pay fines and fees associated with their incarceration, a decision that was immediately assailed by rights activists as an unconstitutional and immoral poll tax.
In a statement condemning the ruling (pdf), the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU), ACLU of Florida, Brennan Center for Justice at NYU School of Law and NAACP Legal Defense and Educational Fund said the ruling "does not—indeed, cannot—alter what the U.S. Constitution requires."