Quantcast
Connect with us

Wall Street panicking: There’s a 1-in-3 chance of a recession by 2020 thanks to Trump’s trade meddling

Published

on

Monday’s 400-point Dow slide was far from the worst single day stock market performance under President Donald Trump. But it represents a lasting and growing fear on Wall Street that the massive, uninterrupted stretch of economic growth over the past decade could finally be drawing to a close.

As Politico reported on Tuesday, economists at large institutions are increasingly worried that a recession will hit before the 2020 presidential election — and they put the blame squarely on Trump’s trade policies.

ADVERTISEMENT

“We are worried,” wrote analysts from Bank of America. “We now have a number of early indicators starting to signal heightened risk of recession. Our official model has the probability of a recession over the next 12 months only pegged at about 20 percent, but our subjective call based on the slew of data and events leads us to believe it is closer to a 1-in-3 chance.”

President Donald Trump has tried to pass the buck for economic instability onto the Federal Reserve, with which he has repeatedly fought over interest rate hikes. But economists at Goldman Sachs, led by Jan Hatzius, said on no uncertain terms that the real problem is the trade war.

“Fears that the trade war will trigger a recession are growing,” the economists’ report stated. “We expect tariffs targeting the remaining $300 billion of U.S. imports from China to go into effect and no longer expect a trade deal before the 2020 election.”

The consequences of a recession at this juncture would be severe, as Trump and the previous Republican Congress have already stretched thin the conventional fiscal policy tools for stimulus with a massive tax cut for the rich, and the Fed has little room to cut interest rates with Trump already having leaned on them to keep rates low. Such a contraction could, as in 2008, kill millions of jobs and force large sectors of the American economy to restructure.

ADVERTISEMENT

Enjoy this piece?

… then let us make a small request. Like you, we here at Raw Story believe in the power of progressive journalism — and we’re investing in investigative reporting as other publications give it the ax. Raw Story readers power David Cay Johnston’s DCReport, which we've expanded to keep watch in Washington. We’ve exposed billionaire tax evasion and uncovered White House efforts to poison our water. We’ve revealed financial scams that prey on veterans, and legal efforts to harm workers exploited by abusive bosses. We’ve launched a weekly podcast, “We’ve Got Issues,” focused on issues, not tweets. And unlike other news outlets, we’ve decided to make our original content free. But we need your support to do what we do.

Raw Story is independent. You won’t find mainstream media bias here. We’re not part of a conglomerate, or a project of venture capital bros. From unflinching coverage of racism, to revealing efforts to erode our rights, Raw Story will continue to expose hypocrisy and harm. Unhinged from billionaires and corporate overlords, we fight to ensure no one is forgotten.

We need your support to keep producing quality journalism and deepen our investigative reporting. Every reader contribution, whatever the amount, makes a tremendous difference. Invest with us in the future. Make a one-time contribution to Raw Story Investigates, or click here to become a subscriber. Thank you. Click to donate by check.

Enjoy this piece?

… then let us make a small request. Like you, we here at Raw Story believe in the power of progressive journalism — and we’re investing in investigative reporting as other publications give it the ax. Raw Story readers power David Cay Johnston’s DCReport, which we've expanded to keep watch in Washington. We’ve exposed billionaire tax evasion and uncovered White House efforts to poison our water. We’ve revealed financial scams that prey on veterans, and efforts to harm workers exploited by abusive bosses. We’ve launched a weekly podcast, “We’ve Got Issues,” focused on issues, not tweets. Unlike other news sites, we’ve decided to make our original content free. But we need your support to do what we do.

Raw Story is independent. You won’t find mainstream media bias here. We’re not part of a conglomerate, or a project of venture capital bros. From unflinching coverage of racism, to revealing efforts to erode our rights, Raw Story will continue to expose hypocrisy and harm. Unhinged from corporate overlords, we fight to ensure no one is forgotten.

We need your support to keep producing quality journalism and deepen our investigative reporting. Every reader contribution, whatever the amount, makes a tremendous difference. Invest with us in the future. Make a one-time contribution to Raw Story Investigates, or click here to become a subscriber. Thank you.



Report typos and corrections to: [email protected]. Send news tips to: [email protected].
READ COMMENTS - JOIN THE DISCUSSION
Continue Reading

Breaking Banner

Other gun groups start moving in as the NRA flounders to handle infighting and lawsuits

Published

on

The National Rifle Association is in complete shambles as major members of the board are being shoved out after questioning chief Wayne LaPierre on his reported spending on his own wardrobe at a Beverly Hills boutique, his wife's hair, and demanding the NRA fund a $6 million mansion for him to live in. Three members were driven out of the board initially, and another major celebrity member quit very publicly last week.

Continue Reading

Breaking Banner

Trump thinks he can block shipments to Venezuela by posting Navy ships along their coastline

Published

on

In a strange turn of national security events, President Donald Trump thinks that he can cripple Venezuela by stationing Navy ships along the coastline of the country. He seems to have forgotten that Venezuela is connected to other countries on its south, west and southeastern border.

According to Axios, five current and former officials have either directly heard Trump say it or have been briefed on his plan.

The plan would be to blockade the country in the south Carribean for at least a year and a half.

Continue Reading
 

Breaking Banner

Trump blames Ocasio-Cortez for two Democrats who were nearly barred from Israel

Published

on

President Donald Trump tweeted out Sunday that Democrats are ready to wage war against Israel because the prime minister followed his direction to ban Congresswomen from coming to the country.

Israel backed off after an uprising from both conservative and liberal groups, saying the purpose of any international visit should be to help educate, regardless of the support for the country.

"House Democrats want to take action against Israel because it is fighting back against two (maybe four) people that have said unthinkably bad things about it & the Israeli people. Dems have such disdain for Israel! What happened? AOC Plus 4 is the new face of the Democrat Party!" Trump announced.

Continue Reading
 
 

Thank you for whitelisting Raw Story!

As a special thank you, from now until August 31st, we're offering you a discounted rate of $5.99/month to subscribe and get ad-free access. We're honored to have you as a reader. Thank you. :) —Elias, Membership Coordinator
LEARN MORE
close-link
close-image