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Wall Street panicking: There’s a 1-in-3 chance of a recession by 2020 thanks to Trump’s trade meddling

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Don’t panic: An international survey finds concerns about fake news are overblown. studiostoks/shutterstock.com

Monday’s 400-point Dow slide was far from the worst single day stock market performance under President Donald Trump. But it represents a lasting and growing fear on Wall Street that the massive, uninterrupted stretch of economic growth over the past decade could finally be drawing to a close.

As Politico reported on Tuesday, economists at large institutions are increasingly worried that a recession will hit before the 2020 presidential election — and they put the blame squarely on Trump’s trade policies.

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“We are worried,” wrote analysts from Bank of America. “We now have a number of early indicators starting to signal heightened risk of recession. Our official model has the probability of a recession over the next 12 months only pegged at about 20 percent, but our subjective call based on the slew of data and events leads us to believe it is closer to a 1-in-3 chance.”

President Donald Trump has tried to pass the buck for economic instability onto the Federal Reserve, with which he has repeatedly fought over interest rate hikes. But economists at Goldman Sachs, led by Jan Hatzius, said on no uncertain terms that the real problem is the trade war.

“Fears that the trade war will trigger a recession are growing,” the economists’ report stated. “We expect tariffs targeting the remaining $300 billion of U.S. imports from China to go into effect and no longer expect a trade deal before the 2020 election.”

The consequences of a recession at this juncture would be severe, as Trump and the previous Republican Congress have already stretched thin the conventional fiscal policy tools for stimulus with a massive tax cut for the rich, and the Fed has little room to cut interest rates with Trump already having leaned on them to keep rates low. Such a contraction could, as in 2008, kill millions of jobs and force large sectors of the American economy to restructure.


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2020 Election

Conservative New Hampshire paper breaks 100-year tradition of GOP presidential endorsements with nod to Biden

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In it's first Democratic endorsement in 100 years, a conservative New Hampshire newspaper is breaking tradition by backing Joe Biden for president.

The New Hampshire Union Leader released a statement in their publication on Sunday defending their decision.

"There is no love lost between this newspaper and President Donald J. Trump. The Union Leader was very quickly dismissed by then-candidate Trump after we failed to bestow on him our endorsement in the Republican primary four years ago, "the statement said. "We were hopeful with Trump’s win that he might change, that the weight and responsibility of the Oval Office might mold a more respectful and presidential man. We have watched with the rest of the world as the mantle of the presidency has done very little to change Trump while the country and world have changed significantly."

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2020 Election

Trump refusing to help some embattled GOP senators facing their own re-election woes: report

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Josh Holmes currently serves as a top adviser to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY). While much of the GOP's fate is on the chopping block this election cycle with closer races than anticipated and little help from the president himself, Holmes told Politico he thinks "you could have a whole bunch of scenarios play out on Election Day." The worst-case scenario for the GOP, he said, is "potentially catastrophic."

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2020 Election

Ivanka celebratory wedding anniversary tweet flooded with reminders of Times Square billboards ripping couple over COVID

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Ivanka Trump attempted to celebrate her wedding anniversary with Jared Kushner on Sunday afternoon with a tweet stating, "11 incredible years... with forever to go! Happy anniversary my love!" and it did not go well, coming on the weekend when she and her "love" became embroiled in a legal threat to go after the Lincoln Project over critical billboards of the couple currently on display in Times Square.

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