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Wall Street panicking: There’s a 1-in-3 chance of a recession by 2020 thanks to Trump’s trade meddling

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Monday’s 400-point Dow slide was far from the worst single day stock market performance under President Donald Trump. But it represents a lasting and growing fear on Wall Street that the massive, uninterrupted stretch of economic growth over the past decade could finally be drawing to a close.

As Politico reported on Tuesday, economists at large institutions are increasingly worried that a recession will hit before the 2020 presidential election — and they put the blame squarely on Trump’s trade policies.

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“We are worried,” wrote analysts from Bank of America. “We now have a number of early indicators starting to signal heightened risk of recession. Our official model has the probability of a recession over the next 12 months only pegged at about 20 percent, but our subjective call based on the slew of data and events leads us to believe it is closer to a 1-in-3 chance.”

President Donald Trump has tried to pass the buck for economic instability onto the Federal Reserve, with which he has repeatedly fought over interest rate hikes. But economists at Goldman Sachs, led by Jan Hatzius, said on no uncertain terms that the real problem is the trade war.

“Fears that the trade war will trigger a recession are growing,” the economists’ report stated. “We expect tariffs targeting the remaining $300 billion of U.S. imports from China to go into effect and no longer expect a trade deal before the 2020 election.”

The consequences of a recession at this juncture would be severe, as Trump and the previous Republican Congress have already stretched thin the conventional fiscal policy tools for stimulus with a massive tax cut for the rich, and the Fed has little room to cut interest rates with Trump already having leaned on them to keep rates low. Such a contraction could, as in 2008, kill millions of jobs and force large sectors of the American economy to restructure.

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Morning Joe drops bomb on Trump about impeachment support in states he desperately needs in 2020

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Kicking off Tuesday's "Morning Joe" on MSNBC, hosts Joe Scarborough and Mika Brzezinski busted out the latest polling numbers about support for impeachment in key battleground states and let Donald Trump know he is deeply underwater.

Jumping right into it, the Brzezinski said, "Half of voters in six states that helped carry Trump to victory in 2016 say they support the House Democrats' impeachment inquiry into the president. According to the latest New York Times/Siena College poll put that support at 50 percent of voters in Pennsylvania, Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Arizona -- 45 percent say they oppose."

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Can the Trump cult be deprogrammed?

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A new Gallup poll finds that at least 50 percent of the American people want Donald Trump to be impeached and removed from office. That's three times higher than the percentage of Americans who supported impeaching Richard Nixon during the early stages of the impeachment process. Trump could become the first American president to run for re-election after being impeached in the House of Representatives.

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Stephen Colbert rips ‘idiot’ GOP senator for defending Trump’s unconstitutional self-dealing

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"Late Show" host Stephen Colbert returned from New Zealand for a new show that aired Monday evening.

"I have been as far from the insatiable black hole of news that is Donald Trump as you can get on this planet.

I've heard there have been some developments over the last 10 days that did not go well for Donnie,"

The host ripped Trump's 71-minute press conference.

"Seventy-one minutes is not a press conference, it's a one man show," he explained. "If you liked 'Fleabag,' you'll love Donald Trump in 'Douchebag,'" he said.

[caption id="attachment_1555275" align="aligncenter" width="800"] ‘The Late Show’ graphic (screengrab)[/caption]

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