One state that President Donald Trump absolutely needs to keep in his corner to have any shot at winning re-election in 2020 is Wisconsin. A longtime stronghold of progressive politics, the Badger State narrowly backed Trump in an upset in 2016, due in no small part to his connection with white non-college voters, which make up a large amount of the state's electorate. Trump could theoretically lose Michigan and Pennsylvania, and still squeak out a second Electoral College victory if he keeps Wisconsin.
A new poll from Marquette Law School, the most preeminent pollster of Wisconsin, brings bad news for Trump: he is trailing former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), and tied with Sens. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and Kamala Harris (D-CA). But as the Washington Post's Greg Sargent noted, the poll does more than that — it also finds that voters reject Trump's agenda wholesale.
"On immigration, the poll finds that 65 percent of Wisconsin voters think 'having an increasing number of people of many different races, ethnic groups and nationalities in the United States makes this country a better place to live,'" wrote Sargent. "By contrast, 27 percent say those things make no difference (and only 4 percent say they make the United States worse)."
These results, released on the same day that longtime stalwart GOP congressman Jim Sensenbrenner announced retirement from his suburban Milwaukee district, indicate that under Trump, Wisconsinites' view of immigrants and minorities has grown more, not less, favorable.
What is more, Sargent noted, Wisconsin voters also reject his economic agenda. "On trade, the poll finds that among Wisconsin voters, only 30 percent say tariffs help the economy, while 46 percent say they hurt, and another 17 percent say they don’t make much difference — putting a solid majority in the camp that says they hurt or do nothing. Among pure independents ... 47 percent say the tariffs hurt, while only 34 percent say they help."
The poll doesn't have all bad news for Trump — it shows Republicans remain united behind him, and that his support in rural areas is holding steady. But it suggests his policies are causing the Milwaukee suburbs to slip away from Trump, and he cannot afford for his margins to decline there.
"Now that this nationalism has collided with reality, it looks as if it isn’t playing as well as he might have hoped — right in a state that is thought of as the heart of Trump country," concluded Sargent.
