If President Donald Trump doesn’t serve a second term, it probably won’t be because of impeachment — as the GOP-controlled U.S. Senate, under the direction of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, is almost certain to acquit him on whatever articles of impeachment he ends up being indicted on. One thing that is very much up in the air, however, is the 2020 election: whether or not Trump is voted out of office remains to be seen. And Paul Brandus, founder of West Wing Reports, stresses in a November 26 op-ed for USA Today that one thing that could mean the difference between Trump getting reelected or not are the economic conditions in Rust Belt states.
Brandus is skeptical over claims that the impeachment inquiry presently taking place in the U.S. House of Representatives could sway public opinion in a big way.
“Anyone who claims to know whether impeachment proceedings against President Donald Trump will move the public opinion needle one way or the other should check that assumption at the door,” Brandus asserts. “We’re witnessing a first here: no president running for reelection has ever done so under the cloud of possible removal from office. Not Andrew Johnson, who was never elected president in the first place. Not Richard Nixon and not Bill Clinton, both of whom had been safely reelected before running into their impeachment buzzsaws.”
Moreover, Brandus adds, the impeachment inquiry isn’t turning Trump’s hardcore MAGA base against him.
“For the year,” Brandus observes, “(Trump’s 2020) campaign has received about $66 million, and more, much more, will follow. It’s a clear sign that the Trump base is energized and angry. You can be sure that this cash will quickly be deployed into key states that Trump won in 2016 and which will make him or break him a year from now: Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Ohio.”
Brandus, however, goes on to say that an “economic downturn” in those four Rust Belt states could doom Trump’s 2020 campaign, noting that according to “analysis by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia,” such a downturn in 2020 is entirely possible. Brandus notes that in 2016, Trump “won Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania by a combined 77,744 votes,” adding that for Democrats, Ohio “may be out of reach, given that Trump won comfortably there in 2016 by 8 points.”
Although Brandus doubts that Ohio is in play for Democrats in 2020, he stresses that Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are — and farm bankruptcies in those three states could prove terrible for Trump’s reelection campaign. Another important factor in the Rust Belt, Brandus writes: the GOP tax cuts of 2017 “haven’t helped most people.” Brandus points out that according to Bloomberg News’ analysis of data from the Tax Policy Center, “the top one-fifth of taxpayers benefited more (than) 1.8 times as much as the middle fifth, and more than seven times as much as the bottom fifth.”
In the early 1990s, President George H.W. Bush went from having stellar approval ratings (89% in March 1991, according to Gallup) to being voted out of office thanks to a tough recession. The battle cry of many 1992 Bill Clinton Democrats was, “It’s the economy, stupid.” And Brandus suspects that in 2020, the economy will — more than anything — determine whether Trump is a one-term president or a two-term president.
“Impeachment may be first and foremost on the media’s mind, and Trump’s bullying of former ambassador to Ukraine Marie Yovanovitch will only hurt him — particularly with suburban women who can’t stand his thuggish, misogynistic behavior,” Brandus asserts. “But I suspect a weakening economy, particularly in Rust Belt states that Trump barely won three years ago, could hurt him even more.”
Trump attacks: Only reason ‘they’ don’t want to let schools re-open is to hurt my re-election chances
President Donald Trump appears to be attacking Democrats, or the large number of parents across the country who are afraid to send their children back to school in the fall over concerns students could contract the coronavirus and get sick or die, or spread it to their families, friends, and teachers.
"Politics," according to the President, is the only reason "they" don't want to allow their children to go back to school.
In a rambling address at the White House Hispanic Prosperity Initiative, the President talked about "allowing those at lower risk such as young, and healthy – children in many cases the immune system is so powerful, so strong – but the young and the healthy to safely return to work and to school."
Trump is cracking as his distraction superpowers falter amid the coronavirus pandemic
Donald Trump is dumb — so dumb he literally suggested on live television that scientists should explore injecting household cleaners into people's lungs to cure the coronavirus. But due to what appears to be a serious and undiagnosed personality disorder — his niece Mary Trump, who is a clinical psychologist, suggests it's likely narcissism or sociopathy — Trump managed to stumble backwards into a strategy that works well with the 24-hour cable news ecosystem of national politics. Actually, "strategy" may be too strong a word, but it's inarguable that Trump's short attention span, impulsive nature and all-consuming corruption have meant a constant deluge of scandals and outrages, with each one knocking the last one out of the headlines.
‘Absolute immunity:’ Kayleigh McEnany claims Trump has monarch-like powers despite Supreme Court ruling
White House Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany on Thursday said that President Donald Trump continues to believe that he has "absolute immunity" from prosecution despite a Supreme Court ruling that said otherwise.
At a White House briefing, McEnany argued that a high court ruling which gives prosecutors the right to subpoena Trump's financial records is actually a "win for the president."
"The president was making general point about deference and on the principal of absolute immunity," she explained. "He believes there should have been more deference [to him by the court]."