The new census data for 2019 allows for a relatively accurate forecast of which states will gain and lose congressional seats, as mapped out by Axios. The effect it will have on political power for the next decade will be significant — but it is not entirely clear which political party is likely to benefit. In all likelihood, the changes will be a wash for control of the House, and a slight short-term benefit for Republicans in the Electoral College — but that benefit could swing sharply against them in later years.
The most significant changes is that many states in the South and West, like Texas, Florida, Arizona, North Carolina, Colorado, and Montana, are set to gain seats. The biggest beneficiaries will likely be Texas, which could gain three seats, and Florida, which could gain two (the others will gain one). States in the Midwest and Northeast, meanwhile, will take a hit — New York, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Rhode Island, and Minnesota will likely all lose seats. California could possibly lose one seat as well, as its population has grown but not as quickly as in other states.
At first blush, this shift would seem like a clean sweep for Republicans, who routinely win Texas and Arizona and lose California and New York. But a closer look suggests a more nuanced story. For one thing, the regions of many of the states that are growing include rapidly left-trending suburban areas, and the regions of the states that are shrinking are largely rural areas that have swung to the right. This would imply that the blue parts of red states are growing, and would require more Democratic congressional districts.
But even that isn't guaranteed, because many of the states that gained in population, like Texas and Florida, have Republican governors and state legislatures, while many of the states where Democrats gained unified control or broke GOP "trifectas," like New York, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, are losing population. That means that aggressive gerrymandering could continue in many of the states that are gaining seats, which could limit how clearly a growth in liberal suburbs translates to a growth in liberal seats.
The impact on the Electoral College is a little less complicated. In the short run, the shift could benefit Republicans, because Texas gains the most electors, and the Trump states that are most likely to flip back to Democrats in 2020 and 2024 — Michigan and Pennsylvania — are losing electors, along with blue states like Rhode Island, New York, and California. But in the longer term, this trend could swing the advantage back sharply towards Democrats, as growing states like Texas, Arizona, and North Carolina have shifted left and may grow more competitive at the presidential level.
All that is certain is that the so-called "Sun Belt" states will grow more sharply contested in the 2020s — and with the new changes brought on by the census, the spoils will be huge.
