1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
“One, nine and 12 [are] locked in against [Trump],” Lichtman told Salon by email. “Six for. Many others are fluid either way, although I am sill hard pressed to see Trump securing either Key 10 or 11.”
When Salon asked Lichtman about the ramifications of the Soleimani assassination, he prefaced by saying that it was “much too early to gauge the political effects” of that decision. He added that at the moment he sees “Trump losing Key 11 on foreign/military success and likely losing Key 10 on foreign/military failure.” He saw the possibility that “Trump might get a short-term boost from the killing, which almost always follows from a U.S. military operation. However, I am hard pressed to see this leading to a long-term success and it could cement in the failure key against Trump if it results in significant harm to the U.S. and its interests.”
If the Soleimani assassination indeed has an anti-Trump rebound effect that would mean that five of the 13 questions are “false.” Many of the remaining variables are beyond the control of anyone besides Trump and the Republicans, but Democrats could lock in a sixth key against Trump by nominating a candidate who is charismatic and/or a national hero. It isn’t clear, of course, that they have such a candidate available — although charisma is, to some extent, in the eye of the beholder.
‘At the edge of an abyss’: Experts warn America could plunge into sectarian violence after election
Experts on international conflict resolution are warning that the United States is on the verge of seeing a wave of sectarian violence unleashed by the 2020 presidential election.
In interviews with NPR, several experts said the United States is exhibiting troubling signs that other countries that have been plagued by sectarian violence have shown in recent decades.
"We thought we were immune to it," said Tim Phillips, the founder and CEO of the nonprofit Beyond Conflict. "When we looked at our own problems, we thought: 'Of course we have some big issues, but we're in a sense immune from an us-versus-them mindset, a sectarian mindset, where there could be real conflict.'"
Trump humiliates a vulnerable GOP senator in her home state
While campaigning in Arizona on Wednesday, President Donald Trump gratuitously humiliated a vulnerable ally who is desperately trying to keep her Senate seat.
He spoke first at a large rally of supporters, but he realized that Republican Sen. Martha McSally should get the opportunity to speak as well, given that she's underwater in her fight against Democrat Mark Kelly.
Trump didn't seem happy to share the stage, though.
"Just come up fast. Fast, fast," he said. "Come on. Quick. You got one minute! One minute, Martha! They don't want to hear this, Martha. Come on. Let's go. Quick, quick, quick. Come on."
Eva Longoria is famous for her acting, but she’s increasingly recognized as a political player in Texas and beyond
A few weeks ago, Texas actor Eva Longoria and her pal, Republican-turned-Biden-supporter Ana Navarro-Cárdenas, unintentionally caused a ruckus while campaigning on behalf of former Vice President Joe Biden at a strip mall in Miami.
Situated at a socially distanced campaign event at a Colombian restaurant between a barber shop and day care, Longoria was a focal point of adoration and political aversion. Some young girls came out of the day care and immediately recognized the actor from the 2019 live-action Dora the Explorer movie.
“They wanted to take a picture with Dora’s mom,” Navarro-Cárdenas recently recalled to The Texas Tribune. “Then some ... Latino Trump supporters came out of a barber shop and starting screaming ‘Communist’ at her.