On Thursday, CNBC contributor James Pethokoukis reported that JPMorgan has revised its GDP forecast to -2 percent annualized growth in the first quarter of 2020, and -3 percent in the second.
The forecast assumes the government will enact a $500 billion fiscal stimulus, and suggests that growth could return to positive in the third quarter if the spread of coronavirus slows.
A recession has traditionally been defined as a period of two or more consecutive quarters of negative annualized GDP growth. However, the National Bureau of Economic Research no longer follows this standard, instead defining a recession as, "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales."
By either definition, if the JPMorgan forecast holds, the U.S. economy could be declared in recession as soon as July.
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