An economic forecasting model that last year predicted President Donald Trump would score a landslide win in the 2020 election now has him winning a paltry 43 percent of the vote.
The Washington Post reports that Oxford Economics has drastically revised its GDP projections downward in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic, which it says is the primary reason that Trump’s projected share of the vote has gone from 55 percent to just 43 percent.
Gregory Daco, chief U.S. economist for the firm, tells the Post that he’s projecting the unemployment rate will “linger in the vicinity of 10 percent” heading into the fall election.
The Cowen Washington Research Group has found that there has been an explosion of jobless claims over the past two weeks in key swing states such as Arizona, Florida, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
“One of the ironclad rules of politics (pre 2016) was that recessions kill Presidential reelections,” Cowen’s Chris Krueger wrote in a research note. “The Trump re-elect was based off of the economy [and] safety, running against socialism and delivering that message via MAGA rallies. All of that is now in serious question.”