Trump is in trouble -- and a summer economic 'rebound' likely won't save him: polling experts

A report from Politico caused a stir on Tuesday morning, as it quoted Democratic economists and operatives who were nervous that President Donald Trump could benefit from a rapid economic recovery in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic.

However, polling experts Nate Silver and Harry Enten both poured cold water on the notion that a V-shaped recovery would be sufficient enough to lift the president above former Vice President Joe Biden, who has consistently led him in polls throughout the year.

Enten pointed out that Trump has for the entire year led Biden in polling on who is more trusted to handle the economy -- but it hasn't mattered, as voters in polls still said they preferred the former vice president to the incumbent overall.

"I'm skeptical that a v-shape or checkmark-shape rebound will help," Enten wrote.

Silver, meanwhile, said that even cutting the current unemployment rate by six percentage points over the next six months would leave Trump with a poor economy.

"It's true that a partial recovery to 9% would be better for Trump than getting stuck at 15%," Silver wrote. "But 9% is still quite high, and voters could also compare to 3.5% or wherever it had been before... The best strategy is therefore to use a broad basket of economic indicators over a broad range of time horizons. By that measure, voters' assessments of the economy would likely still be fairly negative on balance by November even with a halfway recovery."