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Trump is in trouble — and a summer economic ‘rebound’ likely won’t save him: polling experts

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(AFP / Jim WATSON)

A report from Politico caused a stir on Tuesday morning, as it quoted Democratic economists and operatives who were nervous that President Donald Trump could benefit from a rapid economic recovery in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic.

However, polling experts Nate Silver and Harry Enten both poured cold water on the notion that a V-shaped recovery would be sufficient enough to lift the president above former Vice President Joe Biden, who has consistently led him in polls throughout the year.

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Enten pointed out that Trump has for the entire year led Biden in polling on who is more trusted to handle the economy — but it hasn’t mattered, as voters in polls still said they preferred the former vice president to the incumbent overall.

“I’m skeptical that a v-shape or checkmark-shape rebound will help,” Enten wrote.

Silver, meanwhile, said that even cutting the current unemployment rate by six percentage points over the next six months would leave Trump with a poor economy.

“It’s true that a partial recovery to 9% would be better for Trump than getting stuck at 15%,” Silver wrote. “But 9% is still quite high, and voters could also compare to 3.5% or wherever it had been before… The best strategy is therefore to use a broad basket of economic indicators over a broad range of time horizons. By that measure, voters’ assessments of the economy would likely still be fairly negative on balance by November even with a halfway recovery.”


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2020 Election

They ‘just want to watch the world burn’: Psychological analysis reveals 14 key traits that explain Trump supporters

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As he himself said even before he won the presidential election in 2016, “I could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn’t lose voters.” Unfortunately for the American people, this wild-sounding claim appears to be truer than not, at least for the majority of his supporters, and that is something that should disturb us. It should also motivate us to explore the science underlying such peculiar human behavior, so we can learn from it, and potentially inoculate against it.

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2020 Election

Chaos at Trump White House as impending staff shake-ups revealed ahead of election

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The Trump administration is wreaking havoc again with its latest shake-up within government agencies as the White House says it’s preparing for President Donald Trump to be re-elected.

White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows sent out an email to administration officials on Monday. According to Axios, Meadows explained the impending changes.

“To prepare for the upcoming transition, I’ve asked John McEntee to look at replacing the White House Liaisons (WHLs) at many of your agencies. John will be working with outgoing liaisons to explore other opportunities,” Meadows said. “As you know, WHLs are senior-level staff responsible for managing the political appointee portfolio. The WHLs serve as a contact for the White House within each agency, rather than as the agency’s contact back to the White House and therefore these selections are at the discretion of the White House.”

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2020 Election

Trump openly admits he wants to fill RBG vacancy before Election Day so his new Justice can help fight mail-in ballots

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"They aren't hiding that they want to confirm a new Trump justice so that justice can steal the election."

Speaking to reporters on the South Lawn of the White House Tuesday evening, President Donald Trump frankly stated his motive for rushing to fill the Supreme Court vacancy left by the passing of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg: To help him dispute the legitimacy of mail-in ballots in the November election.

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