On Thursday, writing for Slate, Jim Newell argued that there are seven main obstacles to President Donald Trump's re-election.
First is the realignment of college-educated white voters. "The recent New York Times–Siena national poll, in which Joe Biden had an overall 14-point lead, showed Biden leading white voters with college degrees by 28 points," wrote Newell. "In 2016, Hillary Clinton won white women with college degrees by 7 points. In the Times-Siena poll, Biden was leading among the same group by 39 points."
Second, the fact that the president is losing voters over age 65. "Biden has been posting consistent leads among seniors in a slew of national polls released this spring and early summer. This was an age cohort that Trump won by 8 percentage points in 2016," wrote Newell. One possible reason is that "While Donald Trump is also old, Trump makes fun of Biden for being old, which old people may not appreciate. Also, under Trump’s watch, a death virus that’s disproportionately lethal for older people has been spreading uncontrollably across the country."
Third, Trump is too focused on boosting enthusiasm with his base to try to expand it. "If your one campaign move is to throw red meat to your base, your base will absolutely be enthusiastic about you," Newell wrote. "The flip side to that, though, is that you’ve alienated everyone else and left yourself with a rump 41 percent of the electorate."
Fourth, Trump's longtime edge with the economy — one of his most important advantages — is slipping. "We are heading toward a cliff," wrote Newell. "The enhanced unemployment benefits are set to expire at the end of the month. Businesses that took advantage of the PPP will run out of those funds. Rent and mortgage delays and eviction freezes will expire." And Republicans appear hesitant to pass another round of stimulus, which could be a disastrous position.
Fifth, unlike in 2016, Trump is massively lagging in voters' perception of honesty. "Biden is considered more honest than Trump by about 10 to 12 percentage points, approximating his polling lead," wrote Newell. "If the 'honesty' margin can be used as a proxy for the overall vote, it lays out a road map for Trump’s comeback: He just needs to convince an additional 10 to 12 percentage points of the electorate that he’s honest" — and that appears extremely unlikely.
Sixth, Trump is in a precarious position with the white evangelical vote. "Trump won 81 percent of white evangelicals in 2016 and needs to at least match that to win reelection," wrote Newell. He might be able to do this by promising another Supreme Court justice, given that John Roberts has largely disappointed the base this term, but "it’s also possible that evangelical voters will realize that holding their noses and voting for Trump to get their judges isn’t getting them the decisions they want, so maybe it’s not worth it."
Finally, there's the issue of white working-class women. "Trump won white voters without college degrees by 39 percentage points in 2016; in the New York Times–Siena poll, he was only leading by 19," wrote Newell. "The prime mover here is white women without college degrees, a group Trump won by 27 percentage points in 2016. Recent polling has shown that number shrinking to single digits."
Taken together, Newell concluded, Trump's bid for re-election is in dire straits.
