On Saturday, CNN host Michael Smerconish examined the current state of the presidential race — and concluded that while the race is not yet over, Trump is in a more dire position than he was in 2016.
"Joe Biden, as he claims, would 'beat Donald Trump like a drum,' that is what the data suggests," said Smerconish. "No matter what the Trump campaign might argue, the demotion of manager Brad Parscale seems confirmation enough. You don't yank a healthy quarterback with a hot hand. More than anything else the president is upside down because of his handling of coronavirus, where he wore a mask only once, and under duress, downplays the death toll, and is now is publicly feuding with his scientific right-hand man."
"[He] can no longer contend he can shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and get away with it," said Smerconish. "This week, there was a plethora of information. Former Vice President Joe Biden holds an 11-point lead in an NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, and a whopping 52 percent lead in a Quinnipiac poll, and in an Ipsos poll by 10 percent."
Smerconish acknowledged that polls were also favorable to Hillary Clinton four years ago — but "while they nailed the outcome in most states, the pollsters were wrong where it mattered the most: in the battleground states, largely in the upper Midwest."
"Today, polls show that Trump is losing in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin," said Smerconish. "Biden is sitting with a comfortable 8 percent lead in Wisconsin according to a Marquette Law School poll from June. That same exact Marquette poll showed Hillary with a 9 percent lead in the summer of 2016. In the end, Trump won the state by 0.8 percent. A Monmouth University survey of Pennsylvania voters released this week has Biden up 13 percent. Four years ago, a poll at this time, by NBC and The Wall Street Journal showed Hillary Clinton winning Pennsylvania by 8 percent. In the end, it was Trump by 0.7 percent. And in Michigan, a recent survey showed Biden leading by 11 percent. Four years ago, it was Clinton who was already ahead by 9 percent. In the end, Trump won the state by a razor-thin margin of just 0.2 percent."
"So what does it all mean?" said Smerconish. "No doubt that you'll rather be Joe Biden than Donald Trump right now, but it also means there's time on the clock for anything to happen." He added that "Many respondents say they think they live amidst secret Trump voters who ultimately could sway the election ... the president better hope that's the case."