In a worst-case scenario for Republicans — and a best-case scenario for Democrats — the GOP would not only lose the White House in November, but also, would lose the U.S. Senate and watch Democrats expand their majority in the U.S. House of Representatives. Journalists Olivia Beavers and Juliegrace Brufke, in an article for The Hill, discuss the possibility of a major blue wave in November and the fears that Republican activists are expressing behind closed doors.
Some Republicans are privately expressing what Beavers and Brufke describe as a “growing sense of doom.” A GOP source, presumably interviewed on condition of anonymity, told The Hill, “If the election were today, we would lose the House, the Senate and the White House.”
Republicans already lost the U.S. House of Representatives in 2018, when Democrats achieved a House majority. That source probably meant to say that Democrats would keep their House majority if the election were held today, and Beavers and Brufke note that in order to retake the House in November, Republicans would need a “net 17 seats.”
A House Republican, quoted anonymously, told The Hill, “This is the problem: (Trump) continues to allow it to be a referendum on himself. You can’t do that in a competitive race.”
Another Republican in the House told The Hill that the GOP’s 2016 playbook isn’t going to work in 2020, when the U.S. is facing the coronavirus pandemic. According to that lawmaker, “People are looking for reassurance…. Chaos worked great in 2016, (but) they don’t want it in 2020. They want to know that we’re trusting science and doctors on the questions here, and they want to know we’re going to get through it. There needs to be more FDR fireside chats and less Jerry Springer knockdowns.”
Some polling released by Quinnipiac University this week shows why some of the Republicans that spoke to The Hill are so pessimistic.
According to Quinnipiac, Democrats are highly competitive in some high-profile Senate races. In deep red South Carolina, Quinnipiac found that incumbent Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham — who has been a fixture in the Senate since the early 2000s — is tied with Democratic challenger Jaime Harrison at 44%. And in Maine, Quinnipiac found that Sen. Susan Collins, a Republican, is trailing Democratic challenger Sara Gideon by 4%. Collins, in the past, was reelected by double digits; now, according to Quinnipiac, she is in danger of being voted out of office.
Quinnipiac found that in Kentucky, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is leading Democrat Amy McGrath by 5%. That poll was much better news for McGrath than a Morning Consult poll released earlier this week; Morning Consult found McConnell ahead of McGrath by 17%. But in South Carolina, Morning Consult found Graham leading Harrison by only 1%.
Of course, poll numbers can change. In 1988’s presidential election, there were summer polls that showed Democrat Mike Dukakis defeating then-Vice President George H.W. Bush — whose poll numbers improved considerably in the fall. And Bush 41 enjoyed a decisive victory over Dukakis that year. But the U.S. was not facing a deadly pandemic in 1988.
Interviewed by The Hill, Rep. Liz Cheney expressed confidence that Trump will defeat Biden in November. But what Republicans say publicly and what they say behind closed doors can vary considerably. And another Republican source, quoted anonymously, told The Hill that Trump isn’t going to win over conservative women by expressing “meanness” or attacking a member of his coronavirus task force like Dr. Deborah Birx.
“Conservative women want to see empathy and compassion and don’t like meanness,” that GOP source argued. “We are doing really poorly with married, white women. I do not at all understand the Deborah Birx attack at all — not politically and not morally.”
Early voting to be hit by heavy rain and flooding as Hurricane Zeta barrels towards the Gulf Coast
Hurricane Zeta is expected to make landfall near Louisiana's border with Mississippi on Wednesday evening as campaigns work to get supporters to the polls and convince any undecided voters to back their candidate.
"Hurricane conditions and life-threatening storm surge are possible along portions of the northern Gulf Coast on Wednesday, and Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches are in effect," the National Hurricane Center warned.
"Between Tuesday night and Thursday, heavy rainfall is expected from portions of the central Gulf Coast into the southern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic states near and in advance of Zeta. This rainfall will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding," the center explained.
Lincoln Project releases harrowing new video of the future if Trump wins re-election
The Lincoln Project, the group of former top GOP strategists seeking to beat President Donald Trump in the 2020 election, released another new video on Monday evening.
Unlike other videos, the latest release did not feature Trump saying crazy things. Instead, it is more like a 60-second short film.
It features a mother listening to election night returns. She goes into her son's bedroom and lovingly awakens him.
"Hey honey, you asked me to wake you and tell you what happened in the election," she says.
"Who won?" the child asked.
"Trump," she replied. "Trump won."
Twitter again takes action against Trump for lying about mail-in ballots
On Monday, President Donald Trump tweeted yet another false claim about mail-in ballots, and implicitly called for throwing out any ballots that have not been received by November 3rd even if they were postmarked before that date.
Twitter took action against the president's false statement, hiding it behind a warning that it "might be misleading about how to participate in an election or another civic process."
The social network has previously limited other tweets from the president, including those giving false information about the COVID-19 pandemic and one that appeared to glorify the shooting of civil rights protesters.