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Trump’s polling numbers are worse than Republicans are letting on: election analyst

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President Donald Trump (MSNBC)

On Saturday, CNN election analyst Harry Enten broke down how President Donald Trump may be performing worse in competitive districts than Republicans are willing to admit.

“Look at the live interview polls (and all surveys, for that matter) taken this summer that asked about race for the presidency and the race for Congress. Counting each pollster only once in the average, former Vice President Joe Biden leads Trump by 10 points in these polls,” wrote Enten. “Democratic House candidates are ahead of the Republicans by 8 points on the generic congressional ballot in these same surveys.”

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This, Enten argued, could be a big reason why the internal polls released by House Republicans in the past few weeks have generally omitted the presidential preferences of the respondents — a sign that these numbers could be even worse than the candidates’, which the GOP doesn’t want public.

“The fact that Biden’s lead is wider than the House Democrats’ edge is unusual. If it holds, it would be ahistoric,” wrote Enten. “You’d expect that Trump would be doing better than Republicans running in the House. The simple reason is that more Democrats (i.e. the majority party) have an incumbency advantage in the House, while Trump enjoys that same advantage for the presidency.”

Incumbent presidents generally enjoy a significant advantage over non-incumbent presidents in elections, according to data. No incumbent president has lost re-election since George H. W. Bush in 1992. Indeed, Enten noted, in the last 80 years, “the minority party in the House has done better in the presidential race 13 of 15 times when they either control the White House or the incumbent president is not running for re-election. The vast majority of the time, it’s not even close.”

“Perhaps the good news for Trump is that if he is doing worse than the fundamentals, then he has room for improvement without the political environment changing too much,” concluded Enten. “Of course, even if Trump was doing as well as Republican candidates for the House, he would still be trailing.”

You can read more here.

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Portland police search for white man who kicked Black journalist in the head at ‘Proud Boys’ rally

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On Saturday, the far-right group the "Proud Boys" held a rally at Delta Park in Portland, Oregon.

Zane Sparling, of The Portland Tribune documented the scene, with many attendees wearing militia dress.

https://twitter.com/PDXzane/status/1309945564922961920

Sparling captured video of a man pushing a Black journalist to the ground and kicking him in the head:

Man pushes live-streamer to the ground and kicks him in the face at Proud Boys is rally in Portland pic.twitter.com/SAdHShqir3

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Trump’s Amy Coney Barrett pick for Supreme Court might backfire: analysts

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President Donald Trump announced Saturday that he would nominate Amy Coney Barrett to fill Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s vacant Supreme Court seat. Trump made his pick official during an event at the White House Rose Garden.

“As Amy has said, being a judge takes courage. You are not there to decide cases as you may prefer, you are there to do your duty, and to follow the law, wherever it may take you. That is exactly what Judge Barrett will do on the U.S. Supreme Court.”

He continued: “No matter the issue, no matter the case before her. I am supremely confident that Judge Barrett will issue rulings based solely upon a fair reading of the law. She will defend the sacred principle of equal justice for citizens of every race, color, religion and creed.”

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2020 Election

Senate Dems blast ‘corrupt’ nomination of Amy Coney Barrett: ‘This entire process is illegitimate’

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President Donald Trump on Saturday nominated Judge Amy Coney Barrett to replace Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg on the United States Supreme Court -- and Democrats were livid.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) linked the nomination to the Affordable Care Act and the COVID-19 pandemic.

"A vote for Judge Amy Coney Barrett is a vote to eliminate health care for millions in the middle of a pandemic," Schumer wrote. "Democrats are fighting for Americans' health care."

Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), the ranking member on the Senate Judiciary Committee, ripped the nomination for coming so close to the election.

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