California's expensive COVID-19 predictions were useless for rural areas -- here's why

SACRAMENTO, Calif. — In mid-July, California’s pandemic forecast painted a bleak picture for El Dorado County.The state’s so-called “model of models” predicted 45 people with COVID-19 would die within 30 days in the sparsely populated county. With cases surging statewide and more than half of counties on a monitoring list, it was all-but-certain the death toll would soar in the foothills.But there was a problem. The county hadn’t yet even tallied a single COVID-19 death.Ultimately, the prediction for El Dorado County was a total bust in the best way possible. The disease caused by the new coro...


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