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This one demographic shift could doom Trump’s 2020 campaign: elections expert

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Donald Trump at a rally, photo by Gage Skidmore.

Polling has consistently shown that President Donald Trump’s strongest base of support comes from white Americans who do not have a college degree — but new analysis shows that they might not be enough to carry him across the finish line this year.

Writing at NBC News, Cook Political elections expert Dave Wasserman explains that “in 2020, noncollege whites are on track to make up about 43 percent of the nation’s adult citizens, down from 46 percent in 2016.”

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It was Trump’s strength with non-college whites in the Midwest that secured his victory in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan in 2016, and any decline in that demographic could easily tip those states back to Democrats.

“A new interactive collaboration by NBC News and The Cook Political Report finds that if 2016’s rates of turnout and support were applied to 2020’s new demographic realities, Trump would narrowly lose Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — more than enough to swing the presidency to Joe Biden,” Wasserman explains. “And, Trump would lose the popular vote by about four points, roughly double his 2016 deficit.”

None of this suggests that Biden has the election locked up, although Wasserman says that it will nonetheless be a greater challenge for Trump to pull off the same trick he pulled four years ago.

“Trump might need to boost noncollege white turnout by about 5 points — from 55 percent to 60 percent nationally — just to offset the impact of their dwindling share of the electorate and get back to the same 306 electoral votes he won in 2016,” he writes.


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2020 Election

Trump’s attacks on voting ‘backfired and only inspired people to march early to the polls’: report

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Clark County Registrar of Voters Joseph Gloria has had three decades of election experience in Nevada, but had never seen a "perfect storm," as he called it, like this before. With all hands on deck for this election cycle, Gloria helped put together an entire mail-in voting system in less than 90 days to deal with the coronavirus pandemic.

“I’m as comfortable as I can be because I have an excellent staff,” Gloria said. “We learned some things in the primary and are feeling good about this cycle, but unfortunately we have people at the national level who are encouraging people to do things that disrupt the polling place and make it a challenge for us to process votes.”

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2020 Election

Watch Kamala Harris laugh out loud when 60 Minutes asks her if Trump is racist

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Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA) laughed when asked if President Donald Trump was racist during a 60 Minutes interview that aired Sunday evening on CBS.

"Do you think the president is racist?" Nora O'Donnell asked.

"Yes, I do," Harris replied, with a laugh. "Yeah, I do."

"You can look at a pattern that goes back to him questioning the identity of the first Black president of the United States," she said, referring to the racist "birther" conspiracy theory he pushed against Barack Obama.

"You can look at Charlottesville, when there were peaceful protesters and on the other side neo-Nazis and he talks about fine people on either side," she continued. "Calling Mexicans rapists and criminals? His first order of business was to institute a Muslim ban?"

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2020 Election

Lesley Stahl takes Trump to task for still not having a health care plan as 60 Minutes airs interview

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CBS News' Lesley Stahl took heat from President Donald J. Trump for asking him "tough questions" during their interview for 60 Minutes and the train wreck will air Sunday night in primetime.

But in the meantime, there's this:

Lesley Stahl: But you're okay with some tough questions?

President Donald Trump: No, I'm not. I mean--

Lesley Stahl: (LAUGH) You're not okay with tough questions?

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