With only days before the first presidential debate, President Donald Trump’s weakness among a key demographic that elected him in 2016 is haunting his re-election effort, according to a new analysis by CNN’s Harry Enten.
“President Donald Trump heads into the debate trailing former Vice President Joe Biden. Trump is the first incumbent to be losing in the polls at this point since George H.W. Bush in 1992,” Enten noted. “Trump’s obvious goal for the debate is to try and win back some of the white voters without a college degree that he’s clearly lost since 2016.”
Enten based his analysis on nine polls from eight pollsters that have been released since the convention.
“Trump is winning by about 21 points among Whites without a college degree in an average of those polls. That may seem like a lot, but remember that Trump led among this group by about 30 points in the final pre-election polls in 2016,” Enten explained. “Keep in mind, we’re making an apples-to-apples comparison here. Even if the polls are off by a similar margin as they were in 2016, this exercise takes that into account. There’s real movement going on here among Whites without a college degree.”
White voters without degrees make up the majority of voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — three states Trump narrowly carried in 2016.
“Not surprisingly, Biden’s position in these states has significantly improved from where Clinton ended up. He’s got a 5- to 7-point advantages in all of these states,” Enten noted. “We see similar big shifts toward Biden compared to Clinton in other key states in the region: Iowa and Ohio. Biden’s about even in Iowa and slightly ahead in Ohio, despite Clinton losing them by 9 and 8 points respectively. Again, both states have a lot of White voters without a college degree.”
“The question heading into the debates is whether Trump can do anything to knock those voters away from Biden. If he cannot, Biden’s likely to be the next president,” Enten concluded.
Biden continues to eat into Trump's edge among Non-College Whites. Doing ~10 pts than Clinton did in pre-election polls. Biden's best path right now clearly is one of two maps (Clinton states + MI + PA + WI or Clinton states + AZ + MI + NE-2 + WI)… https://t.co/qyZtROqLxS
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) September 26, 2020
Trump chief of staff Mark Meadows committed campaign finance crimes: watchdog group
The government ethics watchdog organization Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW) filed a complaint on Friday accusing White House chief of staff Mark Meadows of campaign finance crimes for allegedly spending thousands of dollars in campaign funds on personal expenses, including clubs, gourmet cupcakes, a jeweler in Washington and lodging at the president's hotel.
Win or lose — Trump is about to unleash hell
With poll numbers staying put and the odds of a Joe Biden win in Tuesday's election looking good — possibly by a decisive margin — there's mounting dread about how Donald Trump will behave after a defeat. After all, Trump is a sociopathic narcissist with the emotional control of a — well, I won't insult toddlers with the comparison — and he lives in mortal terror of being viewed as a loser. He's already made clear that he will refuses to concede, no matter what, and he's grasping desperately for any way to get legal ballots thrown out so he can steal the election.
GOP senator offended LDS community after likening Trump to a ‘selfless’ Book of Mormon hero: report
Politics and religion are colliding out west after comments a Republican senator made while stumping for the president.
"Sen. Mike Lee drew criticism from members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints this week after comparing President Donald Trump to Captain Moroni, a heroic and selfless figure in the Book of Mormon," The Arizona Republic reported Friday evening.
"To my Mormon friends, my Latter-day Saint friends, think of him as Captain Moroni," Lee (R-UT) said, pointing to Trump. "He seeks not power, but to pull it down. He seeks not the praise of the world or the ‘fake news,’ but he seeks the well-being and the peace of the American people."