In the past, Texas and Georgia were reliably Republican in presidential elections. But recent polls show that in the 2020 presidential election, Democratic nominee Joe Biden is surprisingly competitive in those light red states — and New York Times reporters Alexander Burns and Jonathan Martin, analyzing some recent polling in an article published on September 24, cite female voters as a key reason.
According to newly released New York Times/Siena polls, Trump is leading Biden by 3% in Texas — while Trump and Biden are in a dead heat in Georgia. In Iowa, the Times and Siena found that Biden is ahead by 3%. The last Democratic presidential nominee to win Texas was Jimmy Carter in 1976; the last Democratic presidential nominee to win Georgia was Bill Clinton in 1992.
“President Trump is on the defensive in three red states he carried in 2016, narrowly trailing Joseph R. Biden, Jr. in Iowa and battling to stay ahead of him in Georgia and Texas, as Mr. Trump continues to face a wall of opposition from women that has also endangered his party’s control of the Senate,” Burns and Martin report.
Whether or not Iowa should be described as a “red state” is certainly open to debate. President Barack Obama won Iowa by 9% in 2008 and by 5% in 2012, while Trump won Iowa by 9% in 2016. Iowa is really a swing state, like Pennsylvania or Florida. But it is a state where Democrats have to work extra hard. And Burns and Martin are spot on when they stress that female voters could make a world of difference in the outcomes in Iowa as well as Texas and Georgia.
“In Iowa, where Mr. Biden is ahead of Mr. Trump, 45% to 42%, he is up among women by 14 percentage points,” Burns and Martin explain. “Men favor Mr. Trump by eight points.”
The Times reporters continue, “In Georgia, where the two candidates are tied at 45%, Mr. Biden leads among women by 10 points. Mr. Trump is ahead with men by a similar margin of 11 percentage points. Mr. Trump’s large advantage among men in Texas is enough to give him a small advantage there, 46 percent to 43%. Men prefer the president to his Democratic challenger by 16 points, while women favor Mr. Biden by an eight-point margin.”
Repeat: among female voters, Biden is ahead of Trump by 10% in Georgia, 8% in Texas and 14% in Iowa. The message for Democrats is that the more female voter turnout there is on Election Day, the better off Biden will be in those three states.
“There was a significant gender gap in the 2016 election too, but at that time, it tilted toward Mr. Trump because men supported him so heavily, according to exit polls,” Burns and Martin note. “In the Times poll, Mr. Biden sharply narrowed Mr. Trump’s advantage with men while improving on Hillary Clinton’s 2016 lead with women in Texas and Iowa.”
Trump chief of staff Mark Meadows committed campaign finance crimes: watchdog group
The government ethics watchdog organization Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW) filed a complaint on Friday accusing White House chief of staff Mark Meadows of campaign finance crimes for allegedly spending thousands of dollars in campaign funds on personal expenses, including clubs, gourmet cupcakes, a jeweler in Washington and lodging at the president's hotel.
Win or lose — Trump is about to unleash hell
With poll numbers staying put and the odds of a Joe Biden win in Tuesday's election looking good — possibly by a decisive margin — there's mounting dread about how Donald Trump will behave after a defeat. After all, Trump is a sociopathic narcissist with the emotional control of a — well, I won't insult toddlers with the comparison — and he lives in mortal terror of being viewed as a loser. He's already made clear that he will refuses to concede, no matter what, and he's grasping desperately for any way to get legal ballots thrown out so he can steal the election.
GOP senator offended LDS community after likening Trump to a ‘selfless’ Book of Mormon hero: report
Politics and religion are colliding out west after comments a Republican senator made while stumping for the president.
"Sen. Mike Lee drew criticism from members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints this week after comparing President Donald Trump to Captain Moroni, a heroic and selfless figure in the Book of Mormon," The Arizona Republic reported Friday evening.
"To my Mormon friends, my Latter-day Saint friends, think of him as Captain Moroni," Lee (R-UT) said, pointing to Trump. "He seeks not power, but to pull it down. He seeks not the praise of the world or the ‘fake news,’ but he seeks the well-being and the peace of the American people."