President Donald Trump's upset win in 2016 relied on flipping counties in the Midwestern United States that had backed former President Barack Obama twice before switching to the GOP.
However, elections expert David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report is already seeing signs that Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden is in good position to bring those counties back into the fold, and he writes in the New York Times that many of them are already leaning in the former vice president's direction.
Specifically, he finds that polling in Michigan's traditionally Republican Kent County already shows a lead for Biden, just four years after Trump won it by three points.
Another promising target for Biden is Erie County, Pennsylvania, which Trump won in 2016 despite traditionally being a Democratic stronghold thanks to having a high number of union voters.
"A February Mercyhurst University poll showed Mr. Biden leading Mr. Trump 48 percent to 44 percent in Erie County, and that was before Covid-19 made headlines," Wasserman notes.
Wasserman argues that Sauk County, Wisconsin presents another attractive option for Biden, as it just barely backed Trump by 0.2 points in 2016 after voting twice for Obama in 2008 and 2012.
Sauk county regained its blue identity in 2018 when it backed Democratic Gov. Tony Evers by ten points, Wasserman finds, and the recent mass outbreak of COVID-19 in the area puts the Trump campaign's efforts to reach voters via door knocking in jeopardy.