Red state that's turning blue faster than any other may be key to flipping Senate: report

One of the most dependably Republican states in the country has swung toward Democrats faster than any other state since 2008, and that shift could help decide control of the Senate next month.

An analysis by the Washington Sun found that Alaska moved 17 points toward Democrats relative to the national popular vote between 2008 to 2024, the largest swing of any state, and going back to 2000, it has shifted 20 points left, trailing only Vermont, Colorado and Utah.

In 2000, Alaska voted 31.5 points to the right of the nation. By 2024, that gap had shrunk to 11.5 points, putting the state closer to Ohio and Iowa than to deep-red Wyoming and Idaho.

That trend is a tailwind for former Rep. Mary Peltola, the Democrat challenging Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan. Democrats need to pick up four seats to win the Senate majority in 2027, and some party strategists are counting on Alaska to help get them there.

“I believe it is turning purple. I can feel it,” former Democratic Sen. Mark Begich told the Sun. “It’ll probably take two more cycles to prove it.”

Much of the change is happening in Anchorage, home to about 40 percent of Alaskans. Its 12-member assembly, once evenly split, is now almost entirely liberal.

“Anchorage is getting to be a medium-sized city that, like a lot of them, is getting more and more progressive,” said Eric Croft, the state Democratic Party chair.

Others credit the rise of the tea party and Trump, movements they say clash with the state’s pragmatic streak.

“I think Alaskans, given their druthers, would vote for a nice Chamber of Commerce Republican,” said Joelle Hall, emeritus president of the Alaska AFL-CIO. “That’s not what’s been offered to them lately.”

Republicans disagreed that the state is in play. GOP Rep. Nick Begich argued Democrats’ environmental agenda remains at odds with Alaska’s economy.

“The Democrat Party, for whatever reason, has not been supportive of resource development in Alaska for many years,” Begich said.

Democrats have few other options on a red-tilted Senate map.

“If Democrats can’t consistently keep Alaska on the political battlefield, where else can they make that up?” said David de la Fuente of the Democratic think tank Third Way.

Democratic state Rep. Zack Fields said the national party has barely noticed.

“People in the Lower 48 are not aware of it,” Fields said. “If Alaska were the geographic distance to D.C. of West Virginia or another state nearby, there’d be all kinds of stories about it because it’s super interesting.”