After predicting decades of presidential elections with near-perfect accuracy, historian Allan Lichtman revealed that Democrats have the edge using his time-tested formula.
Lichtman told Fox News that he used 13 true-false questions — which he calls "keys" — to determine who will win the presidency. A candidate receives a "key" if a question is true.
According to Fox News, Lichtman checks the following for each candidate:
– party mandate
– contest
– incumbency
– third party
– short-term economy
– long-term economy
– policy change
– social unrest
– scandal
– foreign/military failure
– foreign/military success
– incumbent charisma
– challenger charisma
ALSO READ: Boebert, MTG and far-fight friends derail Speaker Mike Johnson’s summer plans
So far, Vice President Kamala Harris has held the lead over former President Donald Trump.
The historian said that Democrats held six "keys," including the primary contest, the short-term and long-term economy, policy change, no scandal, and no challenger charisma.
Meanwhile, Republicans held three "keys," according to Lichtman. The keys included the Republican 2022 primary win, the current incumbent's not seeking re-election, and the current incumbent's lack of charisma.
The remaining keys included "no social unrest," "foreign military failure," and "foreign military success."
"A lot would have to go wrong for Harris to lose," Lichtman told Fox News.
Report typos and corrections to corrections@rawstory.com.
For customer support contact support@rawstory.com.
