To see why, let’s start with the smaller-population states.
Alaska and Wyoming have only one representative apiece, so there are no district lines to redraw.
Montana in this decade regained the second district it once had, and the line between the two districts is new. But it actually resembles the way Montana was split decades ago, with westside and eastside districts. While the approach may benefit Democrats a little more than Republicans, the fact is both districts have been decisively red through this decade. Not much joy for either party there.
Idaho, with two districts, is similar: Both are strongly Republican in a strongly Republican state. There would be no way for Democrats to redraw the lines (even if they were able) to significantly improve their odds. That might change somewhat if the state gains, as it likely will, a third House seat with the next census, but not until then.
Oregon offers a few more possibilities, for Republicans. The congressional map now is what you might call a light gerrymander, designed to give Democrats — who do get the larger share of votes overall — five out of six congressional districts, rather than the four of six that voting patterns would suggest. But at least one of those districts, the 5th, is closely competitive, and a Republican did win it in 2022.
Early on in the last redistricting process, Oregon Democrats considered a map that might make that fifth district darker blue by splitting the Portland metro area a little more deeply. That theoretically could be revived, but in truth it probably would make little difference now.
And if Republicans abruptly were able to control the Oregon process and design a map of their dreams? By consolidating the bulk of the Portland metro area into two districts, and splitting certain other places like Lane County, they could plausibly develop a map with three Democratic and three Republican districts. Maybe. But Republican control of that sort isn’t in view.
The one state where the party in charge would have a more practical shot at gaining a district — just one at most — would be Washington state.
There, 10 districts now are split between eight Democratic (one of those barely, and recently, Republican) and two Republican, so you wouldn’t expect Democrats to find much room to maneuver. (Republicans, were they able, probably could draw maps splitting the state evenly between the parties).
However, unlikely as it sounds, maps intended to change the Washington split to nine Democrats and one Republican are circulating. Most of the districts look like a thinly-sliced pie centered on Seattle. Portions of strongly Democratic King County (Seattle) would help populate seven or eight of the state’s districts. The only Republican district, number 5, left under this plan would be located in the southeast corner of the state, anchored by Spokane and Walla Walla.
As one sarcastic Facebook commenter said, “You know it’s a good map when downtown Seattle is in the same district as Spokane valley.”
Back to reality: None of that is likely to happen, though it’s not impossible.
There is no path to doing it this year, since Washington state (like Idaho and many other states) uses a bipartisan redistricting commission (established in 1983) to redraw the maps, and it is not scheduled to meet again until after the next census. It could reconvene before then only with a two-thirds vote of the legislature.
Virginia had a similar situation, but its legislature voted to change the state constitution to allow for a temporary redistricting change, which was approved by the voters, and later thrown out in court.
Washington’s legislature would need at least two-thirds of each chamber to approve such a change, and while Democrats have decisive control at Olympia, they’re well short of that mark. Republicans, of course, are far further away from it. Any constitutional change, as in Virginia, also would have to go to the voters for approval.
In January, Washington House Majority Leader Joe Fitzgibbon of West Seattle proposed a constitutional amendment to allow this kind of congressional redistricting if another state triggered it by redistricting first. The proposal failed to pass, but he warned: “Washington state is not going to just sit by while Donald Trump and his allies in Texas, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio seek to rig the US House to lock in a Republican majority.”
The odds probably don’t favor such Democratic supermajorities even in this blue-trending year. But if it does happen, a new map could be on the table. Washington state Democratic Chair Shasti Conrad told the New York Times: “People have been asking, ‘What can Washington do with redistricting?’ They’re seeing other states like Virginia do it, so why can’t we?”
The Northwest isn’t redistricting central. But don’t write it off completely.
