Three critical voting blocs are about to hand President Donald Trump and Republicans a bruising defeat in the November midterms, a veteran political columnist argued Friday.
The New Republic's Michael Tomasky admitted he was picking up on some vibes from 1998, when the conventional wisdom held former President Bill Clinton’s Democrats would suffer from his sexual relationship with intern Monica Lewinsky — even as polling correctly predicted voters were angrier at House Speaker Newt Gingrich and his morality police.
"I just sniffed the zeitgeist and sensed the conventional wisdom was dead wrong," Tomasky wrote. "This year, that same olfactory sense is telling me, dare I write it, that Nov. 3 may be even worse for the Republicans than the conventional wisdom now predicts. There are three groups of voters who matter in this election, and each of them is going to punish Trump severely."
The first group, Tomasky wrote, consists of committed Trump opponents who will turn out "in droves" regardless of circumstance. The second is swing voters who backed Trump on the belief he could fix the economy and are now, in the columnist's telling, disillusioned enough to vote against him and his party by wide margins.
The third — which he dubs "Betrayed MAGA Pigeons" — are Trump loyalists who built their own case for their 2024 vote around promises on the economy, immigration and avoiding war, but all of those issues have collapsed for the president.
"The first two groups will turn out in droves against Republican candidates," Tomasky wrote. "The third group won’t do that. But it, dispirited and confused, simply won’t turn out. And their absence, I think, is what will be decisive. There will be no defense against the onslaught."
Tomasky dismissed the idea that Trump could still reshape the narrative before Election Day, arguing the 80-year-old president is insulated in what the columnist calls a "reality-denying cocoon" that no longer matches the country's mood.
"Ask yourself: What’s going to get better in this country between now and Election Day?" Tomasky wrote. "Answer: Not much that I can see. We got a good jobs report this morning, but the bond market is still jittery and central banks are contemplating rate hikes. On Iran, he may cut a deal, but it will be a bad, desperate deal, and most people will recognize it as such. He’d better pray that a new ICE shooting controversy doesn’t explode in October."
Trump quite likely could be even more unpopular on Nov. 3 than he is now, and that could cut even deeper into GOP chances.
"His mental deterioration in just these last few weeks is noticeable, and in two more months, he may literally be drooling," Tomasky wrote.
