President Donald Trump urged Republicans to treat the midterms as a referendum on him. A new poll suggests many voters plan to do exactly that – just not the way he hoped.
"I'm asking you to pretend that I'm on the ballot," Trump told Republicans at an unprecedented midterm convention in Dallas earlier this month, but a new NPR/PBS News/Marist poll found a plurality of registered voters, 45 percent, say their vote for Congress is a vote against Trump.
That includes roughly four in five Democrats and about half of independents, but about a quarter say their vote is meant to support the president, including 59 percent of Republicans and 51 percent of those who voted for Trump in 2024. About a third say Trump isn't much of a factor.
Overall, voters prefer Democratic congressional candidates over Republicans by a 53-to-41 margin, and that 12-point edge is a 13-point swing from Trump's 2024 popular-vote margin. It helps explain why Democrats are competitive in Senate races in Ohio, Alaska, Iowa and Texas – states Trump won by 11 to 14 points.
The poll also points to an enthusiasm gap. Compared with Kamala Harris voters, Trump's 2024 voters are less likely to say they're closely following the midterms and less likely to care who controls Congress. They are also less likely to have been contacted by someone urging them to vote.
Trump's own standing remains near record lows. Just 39 percent approve of his job performance and 59 percent disapprove. The 53 percent who strongly disapprove is the highest share recorded across both of his terms, and his favorability has slid from 44 percent in January 2025 to 37 percent in the latest poll.
Republicans have also lost ground on issues that have long been party strengths. Voters now narrowly favor Democrats on immigration, 41 percent to 38 percent. In February 2024, Republicans led on the issue 42 percent to 30 percent.
Democrats also lead on the economy (42 percent to 38 percent), foreign policy (42 percent to 36 percent) and gas prices (40 percent to 27 percent), as the Iran war drags on and fuel costs climb.
Some Republican candidates are already distancing themselves from the president.
Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar (R-FL) released an ad telling Trump that "some of your immigration enforcement efforts have gone too far," and this week, Senate nominees Ashley Hinson of Iowa and Mike Rogers of Michigan reversed course to back ending the Iran war and suspending gas taxes. Diesel prices in both states have hit record highs, according to AAA.
The survey of 1,280 respondents was conducted Sept. 14-15 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points.
