Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis' cheerleaders had high hopes for his presidential campaign, touting him as the GOP's best chance to move on from former President Donald Trump in 2024. But in poll after poll, Trump has had considerable leads among Republican primary voters. Polls released in late July have found the Florida governor trailing Trump by 43 percent (Morning Consult), 36 percent (The Economist/YouGov), 44 percent (Rasmussen) or 40 percent (Harvard University/HarrisX).
That isn't to say that a Trump nomination is written in stone or that DeSantis doesn't have plenty of time to turn things around. In late 2019 and early 2020, some pundits were writing obituaries for Joe Biden's campaign; now, he's president of the United States.
But if Trump's frontrunner status holds up, the U.S. will likely see a Trump/Biden rematch in 2024.
In a humorous yet scathing Not My Party video posted by The Bulwark on July 28, Never Trump conservative and former GOP strategist Tim Miller lays out some reasons why DeSantis' presidential campaign is "free falling to the dumps" — at least for now.
"The last time I broke out the Not My Party Meter — just three months ago! — we gave DeSantis a 20 percent chance to be the next president," Miller explains. "Today, he barely has a 20 percent chance to be the Republican nominee. What happened?"
The Never Trump conservative continues, "First, Trump's indictment rallied GOP voters to their man's defense, rather than inspiring the realization that it would be actually insane to nominate a criminal for president. And now, DeSantis is echoing Trump's own talking points about how his opponent really is a martyr. Next, he's undermined his best argument — that he's more electable than Trump — in two ways. One, by deciding to run to Trump's right on cultural issues, arguing that the former president is too nice to LGBT people. That's not exactly a winner in the suburbs."
Miller, a Biden supporter, goes on to make a case for reelecting the 80-year-old Democratic president. He acknowledges that Biden still has weak approval ratings, citing "concerns about his age" as a factor. But from a policy standpoint, Miller argues, Biden has a lot going for him.
"On crime, immigration, and inflation — the three issues Republicans have attacked Democrats on most aggressively during the Biden years — things are looking up," the ex-Republican turned independent observes. "Violent crime rates are declining, with a 10 percent drop in homicides in 2023. Both illegal border crossings and inflation rates have reached their lowest point in two years. And — fingers crossed — but it appears we might be avoiding the post-COVID recession everyone was warning about."
