Will California’s gubernatorial candidates realize that they could split the vote enough in the primary to create a Republican victory?

The 2016 Washington State Treasurer’s race offers a cautionary tale. All candidates competed together in the primary under similar rules to California. Three strong Democratic candidates split their vote nearly evenly, totaling 51.6%. But because there were only two Republicans to divide their smaller 48.4% share, the November ballot was Republican vs Republican. Washington got a Republican state Treasurer despite Hillary Clinton beating Donald Trump by 16 points in the state.

The same could happen this year in California, where eight Democrats are running for governor. All three Democrats running to succeed a highly-respected Washington State treasurer were smart and capable, with strong endorsements and relevant experience. I remember my own struggle to decide between them. But when they and the two Republicans all split nearly evenly, the November election ended up being Republican vs Republican even though the Democrats drew more total votes.

The reverse happened in 2022, in California’s solidly Republican 4th State Senate district. Six Republican candidates split 59 percent of the vote. But because there were only two Democrats running, two Democrats faced off in November.

In the California governor’s race, Republicans Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco are even or ahead of leading Democrats in recent polls, despite combining for less than a third of the vote. In a recent Los Angeles Times poll, former Fox News host Hilton is at 17% Riverside County Sheriff Bianco at 16%, Democratic Congressman Eric Swalwell and former Congresswoman Katie Porter both at 13%, and progressive philanthropist and former hedge fund head Tom Steyer at 10%. Former California Attorney General Xavier Becerra follows at 5%, and former LA mayor Antonio Villaraigosa and San Jose mayor and tech industry favorite Matt Mahan at 4%. Former state controller Betty Yee and former state Superintendent of Public Education Tony Thurmond draw 1%, with the rest undecided.

With candidates this tightly packed, it’s easy to see how the Democrats could divide the vote just enough to make the Republicans the sole candidates on the November ballot, even though both are strong Trump supporters in a state where Trump has just 28% support.

Were these Arnold Schwarzenegger Republicans, the stakes would be different. But both Hilton and Bianco are full MAGA Republicans, who would make it far more difficult for the largest state in the country to resist the administration’s programs and policies. California Democrats can’t take those risks.

The dilemma comes from a flawed top-two primary where everyone runs simultaneously. Ranked choice voting is vastly more democratic, encouraging candidates to run positive campaigns and collaborate with competitors who share their values, while entirely eliminating the division or spoiler effects. Even traditional partisan primaries avoid the possibility of a majority party being excluded from the November ballot. But because California’s current system passed as a constitutional amendment (backed by major Republican donor Charles Munger Jr.), the legislature would need a two thirds majority to place it on the ballot for potential repeal, and can’t do so in time for the 2026 elections.

It makes the situation harder that this is such a highly qualified Democratic group, as was true with the Washington State Treasurer candidates. So it’s up to them and to the voters to solve the situation. State Democratic chair Rusty Hicks has encouraged lower-polling candidates to drop out so they wouldn’t be on the ballot. But only one did before the filing deadline. Hicks is now commissioning a series of six polls to show where voters stand and pressure lower-polling Democrats to leave the race, even as he says there’s a bit more time for them to try to make the case and raise their standings.

If California is to avoid risking a Republican governor, most of the lower-polling candidates will need to do this well before ballots arrive at the beginning of May, for the June 2 primary. And voters, donors, and endorsers will need to heed the standings to make sure this happens. Given Washington State’s lesson, the first step is recognizing the danger.

Paul Loeb’s books on citizen activism, like Soul of a Citizen and The Impossible Will Take a Little While, have over 350,000 copies in print, with a new edition of The Impossible coming out this Sept. See paulloeb.org.