'Not on the radar': Ex-GOP insider pinpoints 'upset race' that 'could shock the country'

Former Republican operative Kurt Bardella says one race could deliver an Election Night surprise, and it’s in deep-red Tennessee.

“I’m getting asked a lot what race could shock the country … one that’s not on the radar right now but should be,” Bardella wrote on X Wednesday. “Mine is #TNGOV and @Jerri_M_Green vs #BeltwayBlackburn … if you’re looking for a sleeper/upset race…that’s mine.”

The race pits Democratic state Rep. Jerri Green against Republican Sen. Marsha Blackburn, who is running to replace term-limited Gov. Bill Lee. Bardella’s “#BeltwayBlackburn” hashtag jabs at the senator’s years in Washington. She served in the House starting in 2003 before winning her Senate seat in 2018.

Bardella was a spokesman for Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.) when Issa chaired the House Oversight Committee. He later left the Republican Party and now works as a Democratic strategist.

Trump won Tennessee by about 30 points in 2024, and no Democrat has won a statewide race there since 2006. But Republicans have been bracing for a tough cycle nationally. Trump’s approval rating sank to a record low of 33% in a Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll released on Sunday, and Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot.

I’m getting asked a lot what race could shock the country … one that’s not on the radar right now but should be. Mine is #TNGOV and @Jerri_M_Green vs #BeltwayBlackburn … if you’re looking for a sleeper/upset race…that’s mine.
— Kurt Bardella (@kurtbardella) October 21, 2026