Legendary polling analyst reveals staggering number as midterm results roll in

Election forecaster Nate Silver says Democrats are on pace to emerge from Tuesday’s midterms holding governorships across most of the electoral map.

“If the remaining results go as expected, Democrats will hold governorships in states totaling 392 electoral votes,” Silver, the founder of FiveThirtyEight who now writes the Silver Bulletin newsletter, posted on X early Wednesday.

The analyst shared a 270toWin map giving Democrats 392 electoral votes to Republicans’ 146. The map shows Democratic governors in Texas, Georgia, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, Iowa and Kansas. Republicans held a smaller stretch of states, mostly across the Deep South and the Mountain West, along with Florida, Indiana, Missouri, New Hampshire and Vermont.

Several of those results were confirmed overnight:

• Texas: Democrat Gina Hinojosa won the governor’s race, according to The New York Times.
• Iowa: The Times reported that Republican candidates for governor lost in red states including Iowa and Texas.
• Georgia: Democrats won every statewide race, according to the AP.

Republicans had some bright spots. New Hampshire Gov. Kelly Ayotte won reelection after keeping President Donald Trump at arm’s length, according to the Times, and Vermont’s moderate Republican Gov. Phil Scott won a record sixth term. In Tennessee, Sen. Marsha Blackburn won the governor’s race, and in Alabama, Sen. Tommy Tuberville defeated former Sen. Doug Jones, according to the AP.

The governors’ map adds to a broader Democratic wave. Democrats won control of the House, according to the Times, and flipped Senate seats in several states Trump carried in 2024.