Domestic abuse allegations have sent an Ohio Republican's re-election odds into free fall, according to a new analysis, and GOP leadership's continued support could cost them a House majority.

Rep. Max Miller (R-OH) has refused to end his campaign despite domestic abuse allegations from his ex-wife, which he denies, and neither President Donald Trump nor House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) have called on him to drop out.

CNN's Harry Enten said the scandal has already reshaped the race for Ohio's 7th Congressional District.

"Max Miller is going to cost his party, most likely cost his party a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives," Enten warned.

Prediction markets have swung dramatically since the allegations became public, Enten said. On the Kalshi betting market, Democratic candidate Brian Poindexter's odds of winning the seat jumped from 37 percent on July 25 to 70 percent now, while Miller's odds cratered over the same period, falling from 64 percent to 30 percent — a reversal that began just 10 days after the scandal broke.

Enten found that House members embroiled in scandal historically get re-elected only 57 percent of the time, compared with 85 percent for members overall — a roughly 30-point penalty.

"Scandals still do matter in our politics," Enten said.

Local interest in the story appears unusually high. Google search traffic for "Max Miller" in the Cleveland-Akron area, the lawmaker's home turf, has spiked 3,200 percent over the past two weeks – a record high for searches about him in the district.

Republicans were already trending down in Ohio, which has become a reliably red state in recent years, Enten said.

Voters who backed Donald Trump by 11 points over Kamala Harris in 2024 now give the president a net approval rating of negative 13 — a nearly 25-point swing in under two years. Because Ohio's 7th District tends to mirror statewide trends, that erosion compounds Miller's problems.

"This is already shaping up to be a bad Republican year in Ohio," Enten said. "When you have a scandal to tack onto it, no wonder the prediction markets have moved like they have."

"You put it all together, it is is no wonder why I said at the top of this [that] Max Miller, already running in a tough environment with this scandal, and if he continues to run, will likely cost his party a House seat," Enten added.

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Speaker Mike Johnson delivered a startling response to the unfolding controversy surrounding Rep. Max Miller (R-OH), who has been accused of abusing his wife and daughter and later releasing a trove of private documents that may have included an image of his toddler's naked body.

“It’s part of being flawed humans," Johnson said. "We have to let those processes play out.”

Johnson spoke with Politico's "The Conversation" Wednesday morning as news broke that Rep. Chuck Edwards would not seek reelection after a congressional probe revealed inappropriate behavior with female staffers.

Calls have also been mounting for Miller to step down, including from Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-OH), father of Emily Moreno, the woman who accuses the Republican congressman of abuse.

Miller has repeatedly denied all allegations against him, which include drawing a gun on Emily Moreno and scalding her with hot water.

On Tuesday, Emily Moreno's lawyer accused Miller's attorney, Aaron Minc, of distributing an inappropriate photo of their daughter, undressed.

"Yesterday, you enabled your client, Congressman Max Miller, to share and disseminate to the public an electronic Dropbox folder of materials," Subodh Chandra wrote in a court filing. "At least one of those images could be considered Child Sexual Abuse Material."

Minc later apologized — a fact Miller was quick to point out to CNN anchor Jack Tapper on Tuesday, stating, "I didn't do this — my attorney took full responsibility."

Sen. Moreno has also accused Miller of holding his toddler's toy rabbit "hostage" as tensions mounted between the two Ohio Republicans.

"Max would not hand over the little blue bunny," Sen. Moreno said. "This girl was crying at night because she can't sleep without her little blue bunny... His answer is, 'I'm just not gonna give it to you.'"

Johnson told Politico Wednesday all members of Congress have "domestic events."

“Look, I pine for the days when we don’t have these kinds of disturbances, when we got people who act in accordance with the dignity of their office," Johnson said. "But people have domestic disputes."

In a huge win for the progressive wing of the Democratic Party, Abdul El-Sayed won the nomination for Senate in Michigan on Wednesday morning.

El-Sayed, a former professor of epidemiology and director of the Detroit Health Department, is projected to defeat Congresswoman Haley Stevens, according to NBC News and CNN.

El-Sayed will run to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters, meaning Democrats are defending a seat they currently hold in a state Trump narrowly won in 2024.

The result follows a long and contentious campaign that sought to decide the direction of the Democratic Party on a number of issues, ranging from health care to international relations with Israel.

El-Sayed is now set to face off in the November general election against former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers, who has himself faced a number of controversies, including allegations that he secretly lives in Florida.