The president's party almost always loses House seats in a midterm election – political scientists call it "The Iron Law" – and Donald Trump is single-handedly paving the way for that to happen this year.
A recent analysis found that incumbents are even more likely to be punished when gas is expensive, and fuel costs have surged since Trump launched a war on Iran, and Republicans are poised to bear the brunt in November, reported MS NOW.
"President Donald Trump can be blamed for the spike in gas prices, MS NOW reported. "There’s a direct line between the war Trump launched in Iran and the higher costs, and Republicans have done little to rein in the president or even call out the consequences of his decision."
The national average has stayed above $4 a gallon, according to AAA, roughly 30 percent higher than a year ago, and Trump has shrugged off the surge, leaving GOP lawmakers in a political bind between defending the president's economy and handling of the war while trying to show voters they care about affordability.
"Republicans know it’s a difficult spot," MS NOW reported, "and some GOP lawmakers acknowledge that they and their party need to do a better job."
NRCC Chair Rep. Richard Hudson is telling candidates just to explain it to voters, insisting Trump was "saving the world from a crazy ayatollah with a nuclear weapon" and that prices will "plummet" once the Iran situation resolves, but some GOP senators worry that's not enough.
"The bottom line is, really and truly, if you're not concerned and sympathetic about gas prices for people, then really and truly, we're not thinking very right," said Sen. Jim Justice (R-WV), "because we got a lot of people that are really hurting."
Brookings researcher Adie Tomer says Republican districts drive 26 percent more miles than Democratic ones on average, leaving GOP voters particularly exposed, and he said voters don't have to pay close attention to the news to understand who's to blame.
“This is going to be really tough for incumbents, particularly those associated with the president, because it’s just going to be hard to get out from it,” Tomer told MS NOW.
Election forecasters Michael Lewis-Beck and Charles Tien now project a 33-seat loss for Republicans, using their model that considers presidential approval ratings and disposable personal income, but they acknowledged that partisan voters can be stubborn.
“People are very resistant to changing their party, even if the house is floating down the river from a flood,” Lewis-Beck said.
