A dramatic reversal among a crucial voting bloc is emerging as the defining story of the 2026 midterm landscape, according to new polling analyzed by CNN's Harry Enten.
In the fall of 2024, voters under 50 gave Kamala Harris only a narrow three-point edge over Donald Trump, but today, the president's net approval rating among that same group has collapsed to negative 41 points in CNN's polling average — a swing of roughly 38 points against the president. By contrast, voters 50 and older have moved against Trump by less than half that amount, a shift of under 15 points.
"How big is this shift?" Enten said. "Yeah, I mean, we are talking about an absolutely huge shift, a 180 – young voters are fed up and they're taking their anger out on President Trump."
That shift is now bleeding into congressional races even though Trump himself isn't on the ballot. In the fall of 2024, Democrats led Republicans by four points among under-50 voters in generic House matchups.
That lead has since more than quadrupled to 17 points. Among voters 50 and older, the picture is essentially unchanged, with Republicans holding a six-point edge, down only slightly from an eight-point lead.
The trend looks even starker among the most motivated voters, a group pollsters watch closely given midterms' historically lower turnout. Democrats held just a two-point lead among extremely motivated under-50 voters in 2024.
That lead has since ballooned to 46 points, a shift Enten described as the kind of swing that produces genuine wave elections.
"That's wild," said CNN's Kate Bolduan.
"This is wild," Enten agreed. "This is a wild shift – taking the words right out of my mouth. We're talking about a 44-point shift amongst those who are extremely motivated to turn out and vote."
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