Nouriel Roubini, the economist who earned the nickname "Doctor Doom" for his accurate predictions of the 2008 financial crisis, is now warning that the global economy is due for a recession in 2020 -- and that this could push a desperate President Donald Trump to start a war with Iran.
In an op-ed written for The Guardian with fellow economist Brunello Rosa, Roubini lists several factors that could plunge the world back into recession by 2020.
Among other things, the economists point out that the stimulative fiscal policy being run by the U.S. government will likely cool off over the next two years, and the prospect of passing more stimulative legislation over the next two years is very small.
Additionally, Trump's trade wars with China, Europe and Canada figure to be a major drag on the economy if they continue for the next two years. Even more crucially, they write, rising inflation will lead the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates that will further slam the brakes on economic growth.
Given such a potentially bad economic environment, the authors fear that Trump will try to save his presidency by launching a war to beat back bad financial news.
"Since Trump has already started a trade war with China and wouldn’t dare attack nuclear-armed North Korea, his last best target would be Iran," they write. "By provoking a military confrontation with that country, he would trigger a stagflationary geopolitical shock not unlike the oil-price spikes of 1973, 1979 and 1990. Needless to say, that would make the oncoming global recession even more severe."