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Economic slowdown could complicate Trump’s re-election bid — but he might be able to escape consequences

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President Donald Trump has overseen a historic economic expansion — which turns 10 years old next week — but signs of a slowdown are on the horizon as he seeks a second term.

Weaker job growth, reduced manufacturing activity and hints that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates all suggest a recession could complicate his re-election bid, especially if he continues pushing trade wars, reported Politico.

“The economy has been a tailwind for him, but by Election Day next year it will at best no longer be blowing,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “There is a reasonable probability that he will be facing an economic headwind for re-election with growth slowing to the point that unemployment is starting to rise next year, though a lot depends on what he does with the trade wars and what the Fed does in response.”

Voters tend to finalize their assessment of a president’s economic performance months before the election, so he may be able to buy enough time if the Fed gives him the interest rate cuts he wants.

But he might be better off getting a shallow recession over with now, so growth can happen well ahead of the election.

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“If there is going to be a recession, it’s probably good to get it over early,” said Karlyn Bowman, polling analyst at the American Enterprise Institute. “His marks on handling the economy and jobs are just about the only positive marks he has.”


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2020 Election

Exclusive: A ‘disinformation hurricane’ is coming in 2020 as more adversaries emulate Russia’s model

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Matthew Osborne is a veteran Democratic operative who worked on the Dry Alabama campaign, an operation that sought to emulate Russian tactics on Facebook and raise awareness about deceptive social media tactics. His operation was profiled in The New York Times.

Shortly after the first debate between Democratic presidential contenders, trolls from the message board 4Chan boosted Tulsi Gabbard to the top of some online polls, earning credulous press attention with this sudden surge of support. At the same time, real and fake Andrew Yang supporters complained of supposed unfairness to their candidate, trending #LetYangSpeak on Twitter. While this is unlikely to make either longshot candidate the nominee, anyone looking to disrupt the Democratic Party has two new potential wedges.

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2020 Election

‘Good,’ says Elizabeth Warren after billionaire right-winger Peter Thiel says she’s 2020 Democrat he is ‘most scared by’

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"Good."

Sen. Elizabeth Warren had just one word to say on Tuesday after billionaire right-winger Peter Thiel said she was the "dangerous one" among all the current 2020 presidential candidates.

Thiel, the uber wealthy co-founder of Paypal and a prominent supporter of President Donald Trump, told Fox News personality Tucker Carlson on Monday night that the Democratic candidate he was "most scared" of was Warren. "You know," Thiel said, "I think she's the one who's actually talking about the economy, which is the only thing that I think—the thing that I think matters by far the most."

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2020 Election

Cardi B praises presidential candidate Bernie Sanders

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Rapper Cardi B voiced support Tuesday for US Senator Bernie Sanders, a progressive mounting a campaign for the Democratic nomination, saying voters "let him down" in his 2016 bid against Hillary Clinton.

"I been reading about Bernie Sanders and I'm really sad how we let him down in 2016," the outspoken critic of President Donald Trump tweeted to her more than six million followers.

"This man been fighting for equal rights,HUMAN rights for such along time," the Bronx artist wrote of Sanders, an independent senator from the state of Vermont. "Seeing this country become a better place been really his passion for a long time not a new front for a campaign."

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