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Economic slowdown could complicate Trump’s re-election bid — but he might be able to escape consequences

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President Donald Trump has overseen a historic economic expansion — which turns 10 years old next week — but signs of a slowdown are on the horizon as he seeks a second term.

Weaker job growth, reduced manufacturing activity and hints that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates all suggest a recession could complicate his re-election bid, especially if he continues pushing trade wars, reported Politico.

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“The economy has been a tailwind for him, but by Election Day next year it will at best no longer be blowing,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “There is a reasonable probability that he will be facing an economic headwind for re-election with growth slowing to the point that unemployment is starting to rise next year, though a lot depends on what he does with the trade wars and what the Fed does in response.”

Voters tend to finalize their assessment of a president’s economic performance months before the election, so he may be able to buy enough time if the Fed gives him the interest rate cuts he wants.

But he might be better off getting a shallow recession over with now, so growth can happen well ahead of the election.

“If there is going to be a recession, it’s probably good to get it over early,” said Karlyn Bowman, polling analyst at the American Enterprise Institute. “His marks on handling the economy and jobs are just about the only positive marks he has.”

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2020 Election

‘This spells disaster’: Columnist says GOP is heading for a wipeout in the Senate — and beyond

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On Wednesday, writing for The Washington Post, columnist Henry Olsen said the electoral signs are getting grimmer for the GOP by the day — for their prospects of maintaining control of the Senate, but also of their seats further down the ballot.

"Elections in both the House and Senate are increasingly syncing with broader presidential races," wrote Olsen. "In 2016, every Senate race was won by the same party that won that state in the presidential contest. In 2018, House races largely correlated with Trump’s approval rating, with even the most popular GOP incumbents unable to run more than a few points ahead of the president. Polls for Senate races this year show the same trend, with Republican incumbents’ totals closely matched with Trump’s. This spells disaster for the party."

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2020 Election

Fox’s Laura Ingraham admitted she’s preparing for Trump’s defeat during ‘melancholy’ dinner with Roger Ailes’s widow: report

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Fox News host Laura Ingraham might be preparing for President Donald Trump to be defeated in the upcoming elections. According to a report at Vanity Fair, the Fox News pundit attended a dinner with Roger Ailes's widow Elizabeth a few weeks ago, in which the guests discussed Trump’s electoral prospects.

“The political conversation around the table was melancholy, a person familiar with the gathering recalled. With COVID cases hitting record highs and Donald Trump's poll numbers going in the opposite direction, guests agreed that Trump is probably incapable, or unwilling, to take steps to turn things around,” wrote reporter Gabriel Sherman.

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2020 Election

There must be a ‘real reckoning’ for Trump’s abuses if Biden wins: Princeton history professor

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As vehemently as far-right Republicans hated President Barack Obama when he was in office, the fact is that Obama had a decidedly centrist administration and often expressed his desire to work with Republicans along bipartisan lines. Former First Lady Michelle Obama has made it clear that despite her policy differences with President George W. Bush, she really likes him as a person. But Journalist Kevin M. Kruse, in a July 7 article for Vanity Fair, argues that President Obama was too nice for his own good — and stresses that if Obama’s former vice president, Joe Biden, defeats President Donald Trump in November, he shouldn’t make the same mistake.

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