On Friday, a new poll from GOP-affiliated Spry Strategies gave President Donald Trump some seemingly great news in North Carolina. The survey, conducted from May 25 to June 1, showed Trump leading former Vice President Joe Biden 11 points. Such a development would be incredibly surprising, given that Hillary Clinton held Trump to a 3.5-point margin in 2016.
As it turns out, however, the poll has a fairly significant flaw. According to the crosstabs, 70 percent of the respondents were age 65, and another 21 percent were age 55-64. In fact, only 9 of the 730 people polled were under the age of 34.
While it is true that senior citizens, who in recent years have skewed conservative, vote more reliably than younger people, an electorate that consists of 91 percent people over 55 is transparently ridiculous — particularly considering that presidential elections tend to be banner years for youth voter turnout.
There is little other data to support Spry Strategies’ assessment of the race. Morning Consult shows that as of May, Trump’s approval in North Carolina is underwater 4 points. It is not impossible for presidents to overcome a deficit in approval or favorability, but the idea the president would be in double digits in the state is highly unlikely.
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