Wisconsin political professor shatters the biggest misconception about Trump’s base with a revealing poll
One of the most enduring ideas the general public, and especially Democrats, have about President Donald Trump’s supporters is that they are bound by an unflappable, cult-like devotion to the president that transcends any sort of logic, reason, or reservations.
But in a lengthy thread on Twitter Tuesday, former University of Wisconsin-Madison professor and Marquette Law School Poll Director Charles Franklin revealed polling data that show this isn’t quite true. There are plenty of solid Trump partisans — but voters supporting Trump are, on average, less attached to him than voters opposing Trump are repelled by him:
A few fractures in the base; or partisan asymmetry in evaluations of the president. 1/14
— Charles Franklin (@PollsAndVotes) August 20, 2019
For most of his presidency Trump has enjoyed approval among Republicans in the high 80 percent range. This has been much remarked upon. In Kaiser (@KFF) Health Tracking polls this year (January-April, June-July), Rep approval has been 89, 83, 84, 89, 87 and 85% (no May poll) 2/ pic.twitter.com/08CJSfv1t8
— Charles Franklin (@PollsAndVotes) August 20, 2019
These are impressive numbers. But consider the DISapproval among Democrats for the same period: 94, 88, 89, 88, 88 and 85. Two parties get to play the game, and Democrats disapprove of Trump as much as Republicans approve. 3/ pic.twitter.com/0IHv1AgExL
— Charles Franklin (@PollsAndVotes) August 20, 2019
If that were the full story, polarization reigns and the parties are symmetric in their devotion or disgust. All normal. But that isn't the full story. 4/
— Charles Franklin (@PollsAndVotes) August 20, 2019
Approval is usually dichotomized but is often measured in four points-strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove & strongly disapprove. If we consider strength, the story is more complicated. The parties are NOT symmetric in strong approval vs strong disapproval. 5/
— Charles Franklin (@PollsAndVotes) August 20, 2019
Among Republicans in 2019, 65% strongly approved of Trump's handing of his presidency. But among Democrats 80% strongly disapproved. If strength of opinion is motivating, say for turnout in 2020, advantage Dems. 6/ pic.twitter.com/FadBqNzXN7
— Charles Franklin (@PollsAndVotes) August 20, 2019
For Republicans, the 65% strong approval was paired with 20% who somewhat approved. That oft cited 85% total approval is a bit fractured. For Dems, 80% strongly disapproved and just 9% somewhat disapproved. Rather unified. 7/ pic.twitter.com/Ohi7o33aQm
— Charles Franklin (@PollsAndVotes) August 20, 2019
We might mention independents as well. In 2019 39% approved, 52% disapproved, but again strength mattered among Independents: 15% strong approval, 34% strongly disapprove. And 24% somewhat approve vs 18% somewhat disapprove. 8/ pic.twitter.com/OCXaxSG6Vv
— Charles Franklin (@PollsAndVotes) August 20, 2019
Partisanship also varies in strength. (Pooling all 2019 data.) Compare partisans with independents who lean to a party. Again there is asymmetry. 65% of Reps strongly approve vs 80% of Dems who strongly disapprove. And … 9/ pic.twitter.com/7A1gMdq56C
— Charles Franklin (@PollsAndVotes) August 20, 2019
Among Rep leaners 42% strongly approve and 33% somewhat approve. For Dem leaners: 72% strongly disapprove and 16% somewhat disapprove. 10/ pic.twitter.com/zyINftEaKp
— Charles Franklin (@PollsAndVotes) August 20, 2019
Strong approval is 23 points higher among Reps than among Rep leaners. For Dems the gap is modest, 80% of Dems strongly disapprove and 72% of Dem leaners agree, just an 8 point difference. 11/ pic.twitter.com/jeDHNEwugc
— Charles Franklin (@PollsAndVotes) August 20, 2019
While Reps are over 85% approving of the president, the ratio of strong-to-some approval is just over 3 to 1. Among Dems, the ratio of strong-to-some DISapproval is 8 to 1. 12/ pic.twitter.com/gulb8MiYJ6
— Charles Franklin (@PollsAndVotes) August 20, 2019
It seems likely that GOP voters, either partisans or leaners, will find reasons to come home to Trump against a specific Democratic opponent. But there is more need for Republicans to develop a common view of Trump than there is for Dems to unite in opposition. 13/
— Charles Franklin (@PollsAndVotes) August 20, 2019
There are strengths and weaknesses for both parties heading into 2020. But one of the most often cited Trump strengths, an approval with his base Republicans in the high 80s, has some fractures. 14/14 pic.twitter.com/8gpvAzDIUZ
— Charles Franklin (@PollsAndVotes) August 20, 2019
2020 Election
Trump Jr ripped for ‘hypocrisy’ and ‘stupidity’ as group releases new #ByeDonJr ad
Astronomers believe they have discovered a new, bizarre type of cosmic object that is invisible to all wavelengths of light except radio.
This story originally appeared at Salon.
The strange circular objects in question have been unofficially dubbed "Odd Radio Circles" (ORCs); three of them were discovered in a recent data accumulated during a preliminary survey by the Australian Square Kilometre Array Pathfinder, a radio telescope array in Western Australia. A fourth Odd Radio Circle was discovered when researchers sifted through old data from 2013.
Attorney General Bill Barr’s attempt last month to push U.S. Attorney Geoffrey Berman out of his position at the Southern District of New York blew up in his face. While Berman was ousted, Barr didn’t get the replacement he wanted, and House Democrats are now investigating.
But last Friday night, Barr successfully pulled off a similar maneuver in the Eastern District of New York. Richard Donoghue no longer leads that office, as he has taken the position of principal associate deputy attorney general at Main Justice. Seth DuCharme, who had been principal associate deputy attorney general and worked under Barr, will now serve as the acting U.S. attorney for EDNY.
Damning CNN supercut shows how Trump has been ‘wrong about every aspect of the pandemic’
Trump promotes tweet that accuses the CDC and doctors of ‘lying’ about COVID-19 to hurt his campaign
Judge Amy Berman Jackson orders review of Trump commutation of Roger Stone’s sentence
‘Donald Trump is the most successful bio-terrorist in human history’: psychologist
The View’s Meghan McCain erupts over criticism of the GOP — until Whoopi Goldberg finally cuts her off
Trump Jr ripped for ‘hypocrisy’ and ‘stupidity’ as group releases new #ByeDonJr ad
‘Odd Radio Circles’ perplex astronomers studying the newly discovered phenomenon
Bill Barr quietly pulls off a shake-up in a federal prosecutor’s office — but why?
Here’s the huge blunder Trump made against Jeff Sessions on the eve of the Alabama GOP primary
Congress petitions Supreme Court over their ‘urgent’ investigations into Donald Trump: report
Trump Jr ripped for ‘hypocrisy’ and ‘stupidity’ as group releases new #ByeDonJr ad
Tucker Carlson announces ‘long-planned’ vacation following his top writer’s resignation for racism
‘I told you this would happen’: CNN’s Cuomo tears into Trump for trying to ruin Dr Fauci
MSNBC anchor goes after Fox News for Tucker Carlson ‘dabbling’ in white supremacy
